Voter turnout: The last, best hope for Dems?

Democrats are revving up their get-out-the-vote machine and praying it will limit the scope of a GOP victory

Best Opinion:  Firedoglake, FiveThirtyEight, National Journal

Most pollsters are forecasting huge Republican gains in Congress, and one of the main reasons is that conservative voters are, on average, far more enthusiastic about going to the polls this year than liberal voters are. But Democratic leaders are hoping that a program of "well-funded, sophisticated voter turnout efforts" will boost their candidates by a percentage point or two and allow the party to prevail in tight contests like the Senate races in Colorado, Illinois, and Nevada. Will voter turnout efforts save the day for Dems? (Watch a CNN report about voter enthusiasm)

Begging people to vote will not save Democrats: Republicans have flipped hordes of conservatives "from non-voters to voters just through the intensity of their pitch this year," says David Dayen at Firedoglake. To counter that, Democrats needed to convince the new voters who backed them in 2008 that their vote translated into "some tangible success in their lives." Instead, young people are "mad" that their concerns have not been addressed, and that will cost Democrats dearly at the polls.
"2010 midterms determined by non-voters more than voters"

Democratic apathy may have been exaggerated: The polls projecting the biggest gains for the GOP tend to ignore cellphone-only voters, who are "younger, more urban, and less white," says Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight — that is, more likely to be politically liberal. Plus, Democrats really do have a great turnout machine left over from President Obama's 2008 campaign, and the vote of an "only-somewhat-enthusiastic Democrat" counts as much as one cast by a really "psyched up" Republican.
"5 reasons Democrats could beat the polls and hold the House"

Actually, turnout is more likely to deepen Democratic losses: It's pretty clear "there's a massive enthusiasm gap between Democrats and Republicans," says Jeremy P. Jacobs at National Journal. According to the Pew Research Center, 70 percent of Republicans have thought a lot about this election — that's a higher number than either party has mustered in the past five midterms. If anything, it means Republicans will win even some of the close races Democrats are counting on to ease their pain.
"All politics is national"

.....................................................

SEE MORE OF THE WEEK's 2010 ELECTION COVERAGE:
• 6 biggest voter 'screw-ups' of 2010
• Top 6 tense debate moments of 2010
• Top 6 political stunts of 2010

see comments

What kind of Speaker would John Boehner be? 5 theories

How will the Ohio Republican define himself as the presumptive successor to Nancy Pelosi?

If Republicans win control of the House of Representatives next week, as most prognosticators predict, the odds-on favorite to be the next Speaker of the House is Ohio Republican John Boehner, the body's current minority leader. Boehner is a bon vivant from blue... More

Will angry gay voters punish the Dems?

Slow movement on their core issues has frustrated gay and lesbian voters — and left them threatening to abandon Democrats in the midterms

Lack of progress on gay rights issues under President Obama could erode the Democrats' long-standing support from gay voters, say commentators, and deepen the "enthusiasm gap" expected to benefit Republicans in the Nov. 2 midterm elections. Congress' failure to... More

Democrat candidate to Obama: 'Shove' your endorsement

Frank Caprio, vying to become Rhode Island's governor, has slammed Obama for failing to endorse his campaign. Could Caprio's outburst help him win over indie voters?

Though some Democrat candidates have been discreetly distancing themselves from the president, wary of losing independent voters, one contender took the split public today. Frank Caprio, the Democratic gubernatorial candidate in Rhode Island, lambasted Obama... More

Could losing the House be a blessing for Obama?

Some politicos say Obama would be better off in 2012 if he has a GOP-controlled House to battle with. Not all Democrats agree

Although President Obama has been campaigning hard to keep Democrats in control of Congress, "there is at least a plausible argument that he might be better off if they lose," says Peter Baker in The New York Times. As Bill Clinton and Harry Truman discovered... More

Early voting results: A good omen for the Democrats?

More than 3 million people have voted already, including a "surprising" number of Democrats. Should the party be hopeful?

Based on the latest available data, some analysts are saying that the "surprising" number of Democrats who've chosen to vote early may give their party reason to be hopeful about the midterms. As of yesterday, more Democrats than Republicans had turned up to vote... More