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Midterm election predictions: A roundup
This is shaping up to be a banner year for Republican candidates. What will the final numbers be? Some notable prognosticators and oddmakers weigh in
Who will rule Congress in 2011 and 2012?
Who will rule Congress in 2011 and 2012?
Corbis
W

ill the GOP win the 39 seats they need to take control of the House? How about the 10 Senate seats they need for a majority? Here's a by-the-numbers survey of predictions for how the elections will turn out, how much they will cost, and who will participate:

+75
Current Democratic majority in the 435-seat House of Representatives

108
Number of vulnerable Democrat-held House seats (National Review's Jim Geraghty)

4
Number of vulnerable Republican-held House seats (FiveThirtyEight)

7 in 8
Chances that the Republicans take control the House (Intrade)

53
Estimated number of House seats the GOP will win (Republican pollster Bill McInturff, NBC/WSJ)

+15
Majority that would give the GOP

1 in 3
Chances that Republicans will take control of the Senate (Intrade)

7
Projected number of Senate seats the GOP will win, for a post-election total of 48 seats (FiveThirtyEight)

44%
Probability that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) will keep his job (Intrade)

$564 million
Total amount that will be spent in 2010 by outside political committees and nonprofits (Campaign Finance Institute)

40
Percentage increase in spending that would mark over 2008

$189 million
Amount spent so far by Super-PACs, unions, and nonprofits (Sunlight Foundation)

$97.5 million
Amount of that money from undisclosed donors

$140 million
Estimated spending by Meg Whitman (R) in her California gubernatorial bid — a record for a non-presidential campaign

40
Predicted voter turnout nationwide (Gallup)

35
Percentage of likely voters in 92 key districts who support the Tea Party (NBC/Wall Street Journal)

54
Percent of likely Democratic voters in 92 key districts very interested in the election (NBC/WSJ)

74
Percent of likely Republican voters in 92 key districts very interested in the election (NBC/WSJ)

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