Why the GOP race won't end on Super Tuesday
In past elections, presidential frontrunners have clinched the nomination on the biggest day of the primary season. Mitt Romney won't be so lucky
Historically, Super Tuesday has been the day when many a leading presidential candidate locked up his party's nomination. But that won't be the case this year, experts say, even though Mitt Romney is expected to extend his lead in the GOP delegate hunt as 10 states make their presidential preferences known. Why is the grueling GOP campaign likely to drag on? Here's what you should know:
First off: Who is likely to win Super Tuesday?
The numbers will probably favor the man who's already out front, Mitt Romney. The former Massachusetts governor is expected to win contests in Virginia, Massachusetts, and Vermont. He also has a strong chance to win in Ohio, a crucial general-election swing state where he's running neck-and-neck with his main rival, Rick Santorum. Judging by the last polls before Super Tuesday, Romney is poised to haul in 224 delegates today, says Nate Silver at The New York Times, more than half of the 437 delegates up for grabs. Only about 300 delegates had been allocated in the contests leading up to Super Tuesday.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Won't that make him the presumptive nominee?
Not necessarily. The other three candidates will pile up delegates, too. Rick Santorum, the odds-on favorite in Oklahoma, looks likely to snare in the neighborhood of 75 delegates, while Newt Gingrich could pick up roughly 90, thanks mostly to an expected win in his home state, Georgia. And Rep. Ron Paul could pick up his first victory in the Alaska caucuses, helping him collect 25 delegates. The four-way split would give everyone a share of the Super Tuesday prize, and fresh reasons for staying in the race.
Why is Super Tuesday so inconclusive this year?
For one thing, the GOP decided to spread out its calendar, pushing some big contests later in the primary season. The party also ordered states to award delegates according to each candidate's share of the vote instead of giving the whole pot to the statewide winner. That proportional allocation makes it mathematically difficult for Romney to amass the 1,144 delegates he needs to seal the nomination until late May at the earliest.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Any other reasons?
Yes. With deep-pocketed super PACs behind them, Gingrich and Santorum can remain competitive with the better-financed Romney campaign well into the spring, if they choose. And Paul could be in for a boost in March thanks to a flurry of caucuses, where his energized supporters tend to show up in disproportionate numbers.
Does that make Super Tuesday meaningless?
Of course not. But at the same time, it's certainly not the deciding factor it often has been in past presidential cycles, says Peter Hamby at CNN. In the end, expect Super Tuesday to "harden the emerging outlines of the Republican race." Actually, Super Tuesday might settle more than you think, says Michael A. Memoli at the Chicago Tribune. While Romney can't officially clinch the nomination, he "can effectively put the contest out of reach" for everyone else if he takes a big majority of delegates. Up to now, everyone has been talking about which candidate has the momentum, say Michael Falcone and Amy Walter at ABC News. But in the delegate hunt, "math trumps momentum" every time.
Sources: ABC News, Chicago Tribune, CNN, NY Times (2), Wash. Post
Create an account with the same email registered to your subscription to unlock access.
-
Baltimore bridge disaster: Who is going to pay and how?
Today's Big Question Politicians, legal experts, and the insurance industry are all grappling with the financial fallout of America's worst infrastructure tragedy in years
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
Melting polar ice is messing with global timekeeping
Speed Read Ice loss caused by climate change is slowing the Earth's rotation
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
The Week contest: Stick guitar
Puzzles and Quizzes
By The Week US Published
-
Trump, billions richer, is selling Bibles
Speed Read The former president is hawking a $60 "God Bless the USA Bible"
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
The debate about Biden's age and mental fitness
In Depth Some critics argue Biden is too old to run again. Does the argument have merit?
By Grayson Quay Published
-
How would a second Trump presidency affect Britain?
Today's Big Question Re-election of Republican frontrunner could threaten UK security, warns former head of secret service
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
'Rwanda plan is less a deterrent and more a bluff'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By The Week UK Published
-
Henry Kissinger dies aged 100: a complicated legacy?
Talking Point Top US diplomat and Nobel Peace Prize winner remembered as both foreign policy genius and war criminal
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Last updated
-
Trump’s rhetoric: a shift to 'straight-up Nazi talk'
Why everyone's talking about Would-be president's sinister language is backed by an incendiary policy agenda, say commentators
By The Week UK Published
-
More covfefe: is the world ready for a second Donald Trump presidency?
Today's Big Question Republican's re-election would be a 'nightmare' scenario for Europe, Ukraine and the West
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published
-
Xi-Biden meeting: what's in it for both leaders?
Today's Big Question Two superpowers seek to stabilise relations amid global turmoil but core issues of security, trade and Taiwan remain
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published