America is losing its longest war
What was it all for?
Eight years ago, Barack Obama premised his foreign policy on the idea that the Iraq War was a distraction from the real task at hand in Afghanistan. Anyone think he has completed the task there?
Obama himself isn't so sure. In the past month, he announced a further drawdown of American troops in Afghanistan, from 9,800 to 8,400. It was an alteration of his plan to keep just 5,500 troops there. It seems he wants to keep just enough troops to prevent a disaster on his watch, but just few enough to look like he's living up to his promise of finishing the job.
But it is becoming clearer by the day that America is losing the longest war in its history. After it removed the Taliban from government 15 years ago, the Taliban is recapturing larger parts of the country, making governance of the nation's far-flung regions from Kabul impossible, and doing the most violence it has in years. Afghanistan's civilian casualty rates this year are near record levels.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
What was it all for?
Obama's strategy in Afghanistan has been confused. He invested in a surge, which made America's operation there an extremely large counter-terrorism force. But he never went all-in for a counter-insurgency strategy or in building up the Afghan government. This meant more American casualties for a time. And it also meant more successes against the Taliban. But almost as soon as these victories started to come in 2012, Obama began withdrawing.
The president had soured on the war he had preferred to fight. And he showed it in the exact same way that George W. Bush did on Iraq. The much touted surge in Baghdad and Anbar province turned out to be less of a long-term strategy for Iraq than a face-saving strategy for America's eventual exit.
Just as in Iraq, instead of routing an insurgent force, the Obama administration temporarily overwhelmed it and drove it into hiding in its traditional redoubts. As the drawdown picked up speed in 2012 and 2013, the Taliban regained their momentum, and even some of their territory. Naturally, these gains eroded any efforts at improving the governance of the country.
Paul D. Miller relays:
And in a way that seems naive now, Obama premised the scheduled drawdown on the idea that it would create pressure on the Afghan state to improve the level of governance it offered and to reform itself. Even now, over a quarter of 407 administrative districts in Afghanistan are controlled by insurgent groups, or at risk of falling into their hands. Opium production in Afghanistan has skyrocketed after a lull during the surge. And American efforts to help the Afghan government build proper infrastructure, electricity, schools, and a working military of its own, have been only modest successes.
Without a major breakthrough in halted negotiations with insurgents, there is no plausible ending where America gets out of Afghanistan entirely, without the Taliban putting the government in Kabul into mortal danger almost immediately. Despite some good-faith efforts by Afghanistan's national unity government to root out corruption, the black clouds gathering on the horizon seems to have driven corruption into overdrive, as jobbers, apparatchiks, and officials who are really in a helpless position, try to get as much as they can out of the government before it falls to the ground.
The Afghanistan war has been a demoralizing one for America's policy elite and its military. Yes, many al Qaeda operatives were killed and networks disrupted in the past 15 years. But, it has become obvious now that complete victory over the Taliban in Afghanistan alone would require more blood and treasure than Americans are willing to invest. Beyond that, it would require a much more difficult confrontation with America's long-term "ally," Pakistan, which has operated as a rear-operating base for the Taliban.
So instead, America's longest war will almost certainly end in defeat.
Create an account with the same email registered to your subscription to unlock access.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Michael Brendan Dougherty is senior correspondent at TheWeek.com. He is the founder and editor of The Slurve, a newsletter about baseball. His work has appeared in The New York Times Magazine, ESPN Magazine, Slate and The American Conservative.
-
Magazine interactive crossword - April 26, 2024
Puzzles and Quizzes Issue - April 26, 2024
By The Week US Published
-
Magazine solutions - April 26, 2024
Puzzles and Quizzes Issue - April 26, 2024
By The Week US Published
-
Magazine printables - April 26, 2024
Puzzles and Quizzes Issue - April 26, 2024
By The Week US Published
-
How would we know if World War Three had started?
Today's Big Question With conflicts in Ukraine, Middle East, Africa and Asia-Pacific, the 'spark' that could ignite all-out war 'already exists'
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
The issue of women and conscription
Under the radar Ukraine military adviser hints at widening draft to women, as other countries weigh defence options amid global insecurity
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Ukraine's unconventional approach to reconstruction
Under the radar Digitally savvy nation uses popular app to file compensation claims, access funds and rebuild destroyed homes
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Will Ukraine's leadership reset work?
Today's Big Question Zelenskyy hints at ousting of popular military chief, but risks backlash amid dwindling munitions, delayed funding and Russian bombardment
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Imran Khan sentenced to 10 years: how powerful is Pakistan's military?
Today's Big Question The country's armed forces ignore country's economic woes, control its institutions and, critics say, engineer election results
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
What is Iran's endgame?
Today's Big Question Tehran seeks to supplant US and Saudi Arabia as dominant power in Middle East while forcing Israel to end Gaza war
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Israel proposes two-month pause in Gaza war in exchange for all Hamas hostages
Speed Read Deal doesn't include an agreement to end war, but might be 'the only path that could lead to a ceasefire', said US officials
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Nato official warns of all-out war with Russia in next 20 years
Speed Read Civilians must prepare for life-changing conflict and mass mobilisation, says military chief
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published