On Sunday, the Discovery Channel will air a documentary I helped produce and appear in. Called America's Doomsday Secrets, its subject is the classified history of the government's continuity programs. 

Originally, the classified programs, known informally as COG programs, for Continuity of Government, were designed to reconstitute the government after a Soviet nuclear missile attack. It was as if the U.S. government had become self-aware, realizing that without an operating central government, America as we know it would not exist. This wasn't a problem until the early part of the 21st century because most important functions could be handled by states and cities and towns without direction, coordination, and funding.

The programs ramped up during the Cold War, atrophied during the 1970s, were revived with a vengeance in the 1980s —...  More»

In Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan and elsewhere, President Obama finds himself doing unusually well among white males, the result, we are told, of the after-effects of his support for the auto bailout in 2009. And that's true, to a point. The renaissance of the American auto industry is the access point for voters there who feel better about their economic lot and prospects. 

But there's a deeper reason why the big auto companies and their suppliers are doing well, staying put, and are not moving their jobs to China and elsewhere (despite the claims of Mitt Romney's advertisements).

It's because manufacturing in the American Midwest is more attractive now than it's been since the mid 1990s. An analysis by T. Rowe Price of unit labor costs compared to key U....  More»

1. Mitt Romney uses the word "self-deportation" in a presidential primary debate, sealing his fate with Latino voters. In Nevada, Colorado, Florida, New Mexico, and elsewhere, a Republican candidate who manages to attract 35 percent of the Latino vote is a presidential candidate who is broadening the tent and building a solid foundation for a GOP electoral majority in the future. That candidate is not Mitt Romney. When GOP strategists euphemistically say that the GOP needs "new language" to bring in minority voters, they're actually talking about stuff like this: The inability of standard-bearers to accept reality and change their minds on immigration policy. Self-deportation was Romney's way, in January, of telling the GOP primary audience that he didn't favor amnesty....  More»

Based on the final round of polls, conversations with Republican and Democratic insiders, the calculations of all those statistical folks, and peer pressure, here is my 2012 United States presidential election projection.

President Obama: 332 electoral votes

That is, subtract North Carolina and Indiana from his 2008 accumulation. My outlier state is Florida. I think Obama will win Florida.

Mitt Romney: 206 electoral votes.

Popular vote estimation: Obama: 50.4 percent. Romney: 48.1 percent. Other: 1.6 percent.

How will we know if this scenario is likely?

If President Obama wins Virginia, something that the networks will probably be able to project around 8 pm ET, then ... well, it's probably going to be a long night for Governor Romney. Remember, polls in Florida's panhandle close at 8 pm ET....  More»

Barack Obama and Mitt Romney are the headliners, but the rest of the card is pretty interesting too. 

Three states have initiatives that would decriminalize the casual use of marijuana — Oregon, Washington, and Colorado. The language of each measure violates federal law, which takes precedence; will Romney/Obama's Justice Department enforce the law? Or will the first state to actively legalize recreational use open the door to a new way of dealing with drugs? NB: Washington state's measure has the best chance of passing.

Medical marijuana legalization is on the ballot in Massachusetts, Arkansas, and Montana.

As always, California has a plethora of ballot initiatives and referenda. Prop 36 would give judges more discretion to impose less harsh terminal sentences for third strike offenders; Prop 34 would kill the death penalty....  More»

My former boss, National Journal Editor-In-Chief Ron Fournier, gives five reasons why the next president won't have a mandate after this election. I respectfully disagree.

First, Fournier cites history. "More often than not, Congress trims the president’s sails, leaving both the leader and his followers disappointed. "Presidential claims to a mandate, such as President G. W. Bush in 2004, are misleading to the public and the office-holder," said Anthony Brunello, professor of political science at Eckerd College in St. Petersburg, Fla."

But the point about 2004 counters the evidence. Bush acted like he had a mandate and he was able to govern as if he did, even though he didn't. External events after 9/11 and his swagger after he LOST the popular vote in 2000 shunted a lot of energy into the executive branch....  More»

Congratulations, Democrats. You won a presidential election with your candidate having campaigned for:

(a) gay marriage

(b) higher taxes on the wealthy

(c) entitlement reform (of some sort)

(d) common-sense regulations

(e) cutting the defense budget

... in a year in which millions of Americans are looking for jobs and the economy is on shaky footing.