Democrats should fear a third-party challenge in 2012

Independent runs by Ron Paul or Sarah Palin could cripple the GOP — but they're unlikely. A presidential bid by Michael Bloomberg, on the other hand...

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Sarah Palin could also create problems for the GOP if she decided to really go "rogue" and run independently. Her portion of the Tea Party base would cheer such a move, especially if the Republican nominee was Mitt Romney. A Palin bid would have serious problems, though, especially in funding and organization. Perot self-funded his independent campaign from his vast wealth, but although Palin has done well with her book and speaking career, she hardly has the kind of money to self-fund. Had she wanted to run for president in this cycle, Palin could have run in the Republican primary and tried to capture the party donors and organization. Her choice to pass on a bid in the primaries indicates that she won't jump in later, especially since it would almost certainly cause the kind of split that would give Obama a second term in office.

Self-funding wouldn't be a problem for New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg. The multi-billionaire media mogul could easily follow the Perot model and launch a national campaign. This would hardly be a Republican nightmare, however, despite Bloomberg's occasional affiliation with the GOP. There are few Republicans who would rush to the side of a notorious gun-control advocate who has pursued government mandates on salt use in restaurants and restrictions on outdoor smoking. Bloomberg's most likely impact would be on northeastern states such as New York and Connecticut, two Democratic strongholds in which Republicans wouldn't contend otherwise. Bloomberg could also draw votes away from Obama in Rust Belt states like Pennsylvania and Ohio, which would fatally weaken Obama's already slim chances of winning a second term.

Of all the independent bid possibilities, Bloomberg's is the most likely — or at least the least unlikely. Bloomberg took aim at Obama's lack of leadership in the super committee debacle last week, perhaps signaling some consideration of a run for the White House. He could build an organization nearly overnight with his own funding, and Bloomberg might gain traction among those on the center-left and traditional Democratic donors on Wall Street who have grown disenchanted with the class warfare adopted by the Democratic Party, perhaps especially after the incitement of the Occupy movement — which Bloomberg also recently and repeatedly criticized. 

If we see a significant independent run for the White House next fall, it may well be the Democrats who have the most to fear from it.

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Edward Morrissey writes for Hot Air and hosts several internet and radio talk shows. Follow him on Twitter: @EdMorrissey.