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July 14, 2014

Last week, Aaron Carroll did a video on the "number needed to treat," a measurement of how many people need to receive a particular therapy in order for one of them to actually receive the benefit. Turns out that number is much higher than one might expect — meaning many treatments are less effective than is popularly supposed.

Now Dr. Carroll looks at the other side of the coin, the "number needed to harm," or NNH. This is a measurement of how many people need to receive a particular therapy in order for one of them to suffer one of the negative side effects. It turns out for many treatments, this number is much lower than you might expect. Ouch.

The good news is that these two numbers make it a lot easier to understand that in many cases, simple bed rest and a painkiller are the most sensible option. --Ryan Cooper

7:38 a.m. ET
Branden Camp/Associated Press

The Democratic National Committee on Saturday chose former Labor Secretary Tom Perez as the new DNC chair in a race President Trump alleged on Sunday was stolen from the Bernie Sanders wing of the party by Hillary Clinton and her accomplices:

Seven candidates were in contention for the position, but Perez, the preferred candidate of many former members of the Obama administration and the Hillary Clinton campaign, was one of two favorites along with Rep. Keith Ellison (D-Minn.), who was backed by progressives, including Sanders.

The chair vote was taken in two ballots — Perez was one vote shy of triumph on the first round — amid some controversy over a last-minute decision to use paper ballots instead of an electronic voting method, a change Ellison supporters viewed with suspicion. The final vote was 235 for Perez and 200 for Ellison. Bonnie Kristian

7:27 a.m. ET

In the latest volley of his war on the press, President Trump tweeted Saturday evening that he will break with decades of tradition to skip the White House Correspondents' Dinner, which is scheduled for April 29.

The White House Correspondents' Association said in a statement it "takes note" of Trump's decision, but will not cancel this "celebration of the First Amendment and the important role played by an independent news media in a healthy republic." Several media outlets already canceled their pre- and after-parties in protest of Trump's behavior.

The last president to miss the dinner was Ronald Reagan in 1981; he skipped because he was recovering from being shot in an assassination attempt — but still phoned in a message. Bonnie Kristian

February 25, 2017
Jamie McCarthy/Getty Images

Billionaire Warren Buffett published his annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders on Saturday, predicting investors "will almost certainly do well" if they stick with a "collection of large, conservatively financed American businesses." The American economy "is virtually certain to be worth far more in the years ahead," he wrote, enthusing about American "economic dynamism":

One word sums up our country’s achievements: miraculous. From a standing start 240 years ago — a span of time less than triple my days on earth — Americans have combined human ingenuity, a market system, a tide of talented and ambitious immigrants, and the rule of law to deliver abundance beyond any dreams of our forefathers. You need not be an economist to understand how well our system has worked. Just look around you. [Berkshire Hathaway]

Buffett devoted a large portion of his letter to decrying Wall Street fees that aren't worth it for investors:

The bottom line: When trillions of dollars are managed by Wall Streeters charging high fees, it will usually be the managers who reap outsized profits, not the clients. Both large and small investors should stick with low-cost index funds. ... My calculation, admittedly very rough, is that the search by the elite for superior investment advice has caused it, in aggregate, to waste more than $100 billion over the past decade. Figure it out: Even a 1% fee on a few trillion dollars adds up. Of course, not every investor who put money in hedge funds ten years ago lagged S&P returns. But I believe my calculation of the aggregate shortfall is conservative. [Berkshire Hathaway]

Read Buffett's full letter here, or see Forbes' selection of its seven best quotes if you just want the highlights. Bonnie Kristian

February 25, 2017

The Democratic National Committee on Saturday voted down a resolution that would have revived a ban on corporate lobbyist donations first instituted by President Obama. The corporate lobbyist donation ban was lifted by Debbie Wasserman Schultz, the former DNC chair who resigned last summer amid allegations of primary contest favoritism.

Saturday's vote produced outrage on social media, particularly in the party's progressive wing.

The main item on the DNC meeting agenda in Atlanta Saturday is the selection of a new DNC chair. The top two contenders are Rep. Keith Ellison (D-Minn.) and former Labor Secretary Tom Perez. Bonnie Kristian

February 25, 2017
Alex Wong/Getty Images

Speaking at the Conservative Political Action Conference on Friday, President Trump told the story of his "very, very substantial" friend Jim, who used to be very fond of vacationing in Paris but no longer visits because "Paris is no longer Paris."

French President Francois Hollande on Saturday took issue with the anecdote, which Trump shared in service to a point about fighting terrorism. "There is terrorism and we must fight it together," Hollande said. "I think that it is never good to show the smallest defiance toward an allied country. I wouldn't do it with the United States and I'm urging the U.S. president not to do it with France."

Parisian Mayor Anne Hidalgo previously responded Friday on Twitter, telling Trump she "celebrate[s] the dynamism and the spirit of openness of #Paris." Bonnie Kristian

February 25, 2017

After sweeping the Golden Globes, La La Land is the heavy favorite for Best Picture — not to mention its 13 other nominations, the most for any film this year — at Sunday's 2017 Academy Awards ceremony. Still, there are seven other Best Picture nominees, and an intriguing analysis by The New York Times finds their support is far from uniform across the United States.


(The New York Times)

The rationale behind some of the movies' geographic popularity — which the Times mapped using location data on each film's Facebook likes — is more obvious than others. For example, Hidden Figures, which tells the true story of black women's oft-ignored contributions to the space race, was most popular in the Black Belt region of the South, which has a large African-American population. Likewise, Hacksaw Ridge, another true story, was a big hit in the Appalachian area from which its main character hails.

Other connections aren't so simple. For example, Arrival, a science-fiction film about alien contact, was popular in Maine, which the Times notes "has a lot of U.F.O. sightings."

See the Times' full breakdown here, or, if you prefer to accept the (probably) inevitable, check out this review of La La Land by The Week's Lili Loofbourow. Bonnie Kristian

February 25, 2017

President Trump took to Twitter Saturday morning to reiterate his disdain for the media and suggest a gathering of his own supporters would be the "biggest [rally] of them all," after which he turned to economic matters.

Trump's tweet about the debt appears to reference the U.S. Treasury's daily history of the national debt. The debt presently sits at nearly $20 trillion, of which the $12 billion for which Trump takes credit is 0.06 percent.

As The Hill notes, the national debt spiked in February of 2009 mostly because the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, also known as the stimulus bill, which cost $831 billion and remains controversial eight years later. Both President George W. Bush and President Obama doubled the national debt during their time in office, from about $5.6 to $9.9 trillion and $9.9 to $19.9 trillion, respectively.

Economic optimism has been a favorite theme of Trump's of late, appearing in his CPAC speech Friday and at his campaign-style rally in Florida last Saturday. Bonnie Kristian

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