2014 Watch
July 1, 2014
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The latest survey from Democratic-aligned firm Public Policy Polling shows that the 2014 Senate races could remain tightly contested — even after November, and into a special runoff election in Louisiana between Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu and her likely Republican opponent, Rep. Bill Cassidy.

Under Louisiana's electoral system, the election this November is in fact their primary, with all candidates listed on the same ballot together regardless of party. Anybody who wins over 50 percent of the vote will then be elected outright; but in the races where nobody hits that magic number, the top two candidates will proceed to a runoff election on December 6.

In PPP's survey for the November round, Landrieu leads with 44 percent, followed by Cassidy at 27 percent, plus two more Republican contenders, tea party-backed retired Air Force Col. Rob Maness with 8 percent, and State Rep. Paul Hollis at 5 percent.

Then in PPP's runoff test, Landrieu and Cassidy are tied at 47 percent apiece.

The poll was conducted from June 26 to June 29, and has a plus or minus 3.8 percent margin of error. PPP President Dean Debnam writes in the polling analysis: "The big question is whether Mary Landrieu has much room to grow if she doesn't get to 50 percent in November." Eric Kleefeld

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3:11 a.m. ET

If you're wondering how Jimmy Kimmel Live got to air the first trailer for Captain America: Civil War, it helps to remember that both the Avengers movie franchise and ABC are part of the Disney universe. In this new clip, Captain America (Chris Evans) has to choose between his evidently most-wanted friend Bucky Barnes (Sebastian Stan) and his Avengers allies, especially Iron Man (Robert Downey Jr.) and War Machine (Don Cheadle). The whole gang is there, and it looks like it gets ugly. "Sometimes I want to punch you in your perfect teeth," Downey's Tony Stark tells Cap, and by the end of the trailer, he gets his chance. Wired has a more detailed breakdown of the trailer, but you can also just watch below. Peter Weber

By the numbers
2:38 a.m. ET

The U.S.-led coalition against the Islamic State sends off two bombing sorties every hour, and has for more than 450 days. That can be hard to visualize, so BBC News added an audio component in this fascinating look at how the anti-ISIS bombing campaign compares with previous wars. If two bombing raids an hour "sounds relentless," says the BBC's Neal Razzell, "listen to what Serbia faced during the 1999 NATO bombing campaign," or Iraq faced in the 2003 U.S. invasion. All of those pale to the number of bombs the U.S. alone dropped each hour during World War II — though it should be noted that bombs before 1945 were generally neither as precise nor as powerful as the ones being deployed against ISIS, and WWII was fought on a much larger stage. Still, the comparison is eye-opening as the world tries to figure out the best way to defeat ISIS. Watch below. Peter Weber

Late Night Antics
2:13 a.m. ET

Can't keep track of what Donald Trump has been up to this week? Seth Meyers is here to help you catch up, with his Late Night segment "A Closer Look." Meyers breaks down the Republican presidential candidate's claims that he saw American Muslims cheering in New Jersey following the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks; his inability to understand how television works; and his retweeting of a chart with incorrect data on crime statistics. "The source of this was the Crime Statistics Bureau San Francisco, which it turns out isn't a real thing," Meyers said. "It doesn't exist. It's one of those names that sounds less like a government agency and more like a police drama on CBS." Watch the clip below. Catherine Garcia

Voting Rights
1:45 a.m. ET
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On Tuesday, Kentucky Gov. Steve Beshear (D) issued an executive order granting voting rights to about 140,000 nonviolent felons who have completed this sentences. "Once an individual has served his or her time and paid all restitution, society expects them to reintegrate into their communities and become law-abiding and productive citizens," Beshear said at a news conference. "A key part of that transition is the right to vote."

Beshear noted that Governor-elect Matt Bevin (R) or some future governor can reverse his order, and urged the state legislature to amend the state constitution. Bevin has been supportive of restoring some felon voting rights, but his transition team said it had no prior warning of Beshear's order and needs to study it. Kentucky was one of three states, along with Iowa and Florida, where felons were barred from voting for life unless they received a special exemption from the governor. These restrictions disproportionately affect African-Americans, and in Kentucky, more than 22 percent of black voters are disenfranchised, three times the national average and among the highest rates in the nation, according state Sen. Gerald Neal (D).

Beshear's order automatically restores voting rights for newly released felons who were not convicted of violent or sex crimes, bribery, or treason. Felons already out of prison will have to fill out a form available online or at parole and probation offices. Eligible felons will also get back the right to hold public office but not possess a firearm and are not pardoned of their crimes.

"This disenfranchisement makes no sense," Beshear said. "It makes no sense because it dilutes the energy of democracy, which functions only if all classes and categories of people have a voice, not just a privileged, powerful few. It makes no sense because it defeats a primary goal of our corrections system, which is to rehabilitate those who have committed crimes." Peter Weber

what a gift
1:22 a.m. ET
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Donald Trump revealed on Tuesday he has a secret weapon when it comes to national security: He has the ability to foresee all kinds of terrible things way before they happen.

"Another thing I predicted is terrorism," the Republican presidential candidate said during an event in Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. "Because I can feel it. My father always used to say... everything you touch just turns to gold, and he's got a great sense of location and business and things." The modern-day Nostradamus said that before the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, he predicted the rising threat of Osama bin Laden in a book, The Washington Post reports. If someone had actually read that book, he believes the World Trade Center would never have been hit. "I saw he was making trouble," Trump said. "He had a big mouth, and he was talking. Not that I know, but I watch, and I see, and I wrote.... That's what it's about: It's about vision, folks.... If we took him out, we would have two beautiful buildings standing there instead of one okay building, all right?"

He reiterated other familiar talking points, including his new claim that he saw American Muslims cheering in New Jersey after the attacks. He insisted there is coverage of the celebrations but the "liberal media" is hiding the evidence, and said he's received "hundreds of phone calls" from people saying they too saw people cheering. Trump also brought onstage a man in the audience dressed like him, saying, "This is what I call a real supporter." Speaking to the man's wife, Trump then asked: "Are you happy with your husband? She said yes! She fantasizes that he's really the real Donald Trump." If Trump predicted that comment would make everyone uncomfortable, he'd be right. Catherine Garcia

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12:13 a.m. ET

Maybe Adele should have started off "Hello" with a ukulele. On Tuesday night, The Tonight Show posted a video of Monday's guest, Adele, singing her hit song in a small greenroom with Jimmy Fallon and The Roots, using a dinky drum machine and a bunch of instruments you might find in a grade school music class. These "classroom instrument" sessions are almost always a great way to show off a singer and the song, and "Hello" suffers little or nothing from being stripped down to, in some cases, acoustic toys. Still, it would be nice if The Roots left the kazoos at home next time. Watch below. Peter Weber

12:11 a.m. ET

President Obama presented the Presidential Medal of Freedom to several notable names in entertainment, sports, and politics Tuesday, including filmmaker Steven Spielberg, baseball legend Willie Mays, singer and actress Barbra Streisand, and Sen. Barbara Mikulski (D-Md).

Obama said the recipients contributed "to America's strength as a nation," and pointed out the different ways they made a difference in the country. Mays, he said, "helped carry forward the banner of civil rights. It's because of giants like Willie that someone like me could even think about running for president." Spielberg creates films that are "marked by a faith in our common humanity," and NASA mathematician Katherine G. Johnson had the task of calculating trajectories for the first U.S. mission in space and the Apollo 11 moon landing. "If you think your job is pressure-packed, hers meant that forgetting to carry the one might send somebody floating off into the solar system," Obama said.

Other honorees include composer Stephen Sondheim; conductor and violinist Itzhak Perlman; singer Gloria Estefan; music producer Emilio Estefan; veterans activist Bonnie Carroll; singer James Taylor; former Indiana Rep. Lee Hamilton; and former EPA head William Ruckelshaus. Baseball great Yogi Berra; Shirley Chisholm, the first black woman elected to Congress; Indian treaty rights advocate Billy Frank Jr.; and civil rights activist Minoru Yasui were all honored posthumously. Yasui took a stand in 1942 by ignoring the military curfew for Japanese Americans and going for a walk in Portland, and Obama said his legacy has "never been more important. It is a call to our national conscience, a reminder of our enduring obligation to be the land of the free and the home of the brave, an America worthy of his sacrifice." Catherine Garcia

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