Nepal could experience substantial aftershocks for years

In the days since a magnitude 7.8 earthquake struck Nepal on Saturday and killed more than 4,300 people, dozens of aftershocks of 4.5 magnitude and greater have hit as well, and the U.S. Geological Survey warns that there is a better than 50-50 chance of another 6.0 quake or higher taking place in the next week and the next month.

The USGS forecast is based on where the earthquake took place — in this case, a deep boundary between colliding continental plates, NPR reports. It released stress that had been building up for 150 years, triggering smaller quakes near the epicenter. "What's happening, particularly for these more remote aftershocks, is they are striking on the neighboring faults," Ross Stein, scientist emeritus at the USGS, told NPR, "and those neighboring faults could rupture in subsequent large earthquakes."

There is a 1-2 percent chance that in the next few years an aftershock more powerful than than Saturday's quake could strike the area. "It's kind of a cruel part of aftershocks that we cannot depend on them getting smaller," Stein said. "They just get less and less frequent with time."

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