- 2014 Watch August 4
With three months to go until the midterm elections, Republicans maintain a slight edge in their quest to retake the Senate for the first time since 2006, according to FiveThirtyEight prognosticator Nate Silver.
In his latest look at the races, Silver estimates Republicans are likely to pick up the six seats necessary to flip the Senate. Though voters don't really like the GOP, they also don't care much for President Obama — whose approval ratings have slumped back to the low 40s — nor Democrats in general. Plus Democrats have more territory to defend this year, some of it in states that leaned toward Romney in 2012, giving the GOP a built-in advantage.
"This may not be a 'wave' election as 2010 was, but Republicans don't need a wave to take over the Senate," Silver writes.
Meanwhile, The New York Times' latest election forecast gives Republicans a 53 percent shot at retaking the Senate.- -
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