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polls
October 11, 2018

A new NBC News/Marist poll of Wisconsin voters released Thursday finds Republican Gov. Scott Walker (R) behind his Democratic opponent, Tony Evers.

Among likely voters, Evers leads Walker by 10 points, 53 percent to 43 percent, in a head-to-head matchup. Among registered voters, his lead drops to 9 points, 52 percent to 43 percent. In July's NBC/Marist poll, Evers had a 13-point lead. Evers is ahead with Democrats, nonwhite voters, women, and independents, while Walker leads among Republicans, whites without a college degree, and men.

Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) is ahead of her GOP challenger Leah Vukmir among likely voters, 54 percent to 40 percent. A Marquette Law School poll released Wednesday has Baldwin leading Vukmir 53 percent to 43 percent, and in a bit of good news for Walker, that poll puts him ahead of Evers by 1 point among likely voters, 47 percent to 46 percent.

The NBC/Marist poll was conducted via landline and cellphones from Sept. 30 through Oct. 3, among 943 adults (margin of error of plus-minus 3.7 percentage points), 781 registered voters (plus-minus 4.1 points), and 571 likely voters (plus-minus 4.8 points). Catherine Garcia

November 16, 2017

A new Fox News poll released Thursday shows Democrat Doug Jones leading Republican Roy Moore by 8 percentage points in the Alabama Senate race.

In the poll, 50 percent of likely voters surveyed and 49 percent of registered voters in the deeply conservative state said they would vote for Jones, while 42 percent of likely voters surveyed and 40 percent of registered voters said they support Moore. The poll was conducted Nov. 13 through 15, after several women came forward with allegations of sexual misconduct against Moore, saying when they were teenagers and he was in his early 30s, he made sexual advances or pursued relationships with them. Jones' lead is outside the poll's margin of sampling error of ±3.5 percentage points.

A Fox News poll conducted in mid-October had the candidates tied, and Moore was once favored to win the Dec. 12 special election for the seat once held by Attorney General Jeff Sessions. Top Republicans, including Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), have been calling on Moore to drop out of the race, but he has refused, calling the accusations against him false. The usually loquacious President Trump has yet to comment on the accusations against Moore. Catherine Garcia

August 21, 2017

A new ABC News/Washington Post poll finds that in the wake of the deadly Charlottesville white supremacist rally, 37 percent of Americans approve of President Trump's job performance while 58 percent disapprove.

When it comes to how Trump responded to the incidents in Charlottesville, just 28 percent approve and 56 percent do not. The poll also found that 9 percent of respondents, the equivalent of 22 million Americans, believe it is acceptable to hold white supremacist or neo-Nazi views, and 10 percent support the alt-right movement, while 50 percent oppose it. The poll, a random sample of 1,014 adults, was conducted Aug. 16-20 in English and Spanish, on landlines and cell phones. The margin of sampling error is ±3.5 percentage points. Catherine Garcia

May 8, 2017

A new HuffPost/YouGov poll has found that just 31 percent of Americans approve of the Republicans' health-care bill, the American Health Care Act, that narrowly passed the House last week and has been sent to the Senate for consideration.

The bill to repeal the Affordable Care Act is opposed by 44 percent of Americans, with 25 percent saying they are unsure. Of those surveyed, 39 percent said the AHCA would likely be worse than the ACA, and 26 percent said it would be better. The poll was conducted online on May 6, surveying 1,000 adults. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percent. Catherine Garcia

March 15, 2017

A Fox News Poll released Wednesday shows that Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Planned Parenthood, ObamaCare, and Vice President Mike Pence are all viewed more favorably than President Trump.

The poll of 1,008 registered voters was conducted March 12 to 14. It found that 43 percent approve and 51 percent disapprove of the job Trump is doing as president, with 30 percent strongly approving and 45 percent strongly disapproving. Respondents were also asked to say if they had a favorable or unfavorable opinion of several people, groups, and items, and Sanders came out on top, with 61 percent having a favorable reaction and 32 percent unfavorable, followed by Planned Parenthood (57 percent favorable, 32 percent unfavorable); ObamaCare (50 percent favorable, 47 percent unfavorable); and Pence (47 percent favorable, 43 percent unfavorable). Only 44 percent had a favorable view of Trump, while 53 percent had an unfavorable view.

If Trump were to do only one thing during his presidency, 33 percent want him to create jobs, 23 percent want him to destroy the Islamic State, 10 percent want him to cut taxes, 9 percent would like to see him repeal and replace ObamaCare, 3 percent want him to reduce federal regulations, and 3 percent want him to build a border wall. The participants were also asked about Trump's use of Twitter, and only 16 percent approved, with 50 percent disapproving and 32 percent wishing he would be more cautious. The poll has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Catherine Garcia

October 3, 2016

A new CNN/ORC poll released Monday shows Hillary Clinton with a 5-point lead over Donald Trump in a four-way contest.

The survey of likely voters was conducted after the first presidential debate last week, and Clinton is ahead of Trump 47 percent to 42 percent, followed by Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson at 7 percent and the Green Party's Jill Stein at 2 percent. Clinton has made gains among men, going from a 22 point deficit in early September to just 5 points, and independent voters — in early September, they favored Trump, but now it's Clinton, 44 percent to 37 percent.

Most of the interviews were completed before The New York Times reported about Trump's 1995 tax returns over the weekend, and nearly 75 percent of survey participants, including 47 percent of Trump's supporters, said they believe he should release his tax returns. The poll was conducted by telephone Sept. 28 through Oct. 2 among a random national sample of 1,501 adults. Results among the 1,213 likely voters have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Catherine Garcia

September 22, 2016

Hillary Clinton has lost ground against Donald Trump in a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released Wednesday night, but she still leads him by 6 percentage points in a four-way race, winning 43 percent of likely voters versus 37 percent for Trump, 9 percent for Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson, and 3 percent for the Green Party's Jill Stein. In a head-to-head race, Clinton leads Trump by 7 points, 48 percent to 41 percent. This is the first NBC/WSJ poll to include likely voters; among registered voters, Clinton leads Trump by 5 points in a four-way race and by 7 points in a two-way contest — both numbers are down for Clinton since August.

On the issues, voters prefer Trump on the economy, 46 percent to 41 percent, but Clinton comes out on top with every other issue polled: Being in charge of America's nukes, good commander in chief, immigration, and terrorism and homeland security. She is also seen as more knowledgeable and experienced (60 percent to 23 percent) and with a better temperament to be president (56 percent to 23 percent). On the other hand, Trump is seen as more honest and straightforward by 10 points, 41 percent to 31 percent.

Trump voters are slightly more enthusiastic about the election, 78 percent versus 75 percent of Clinton voters, the poll found, but 68 percent of Clinton supporters said they will "definitely" vote for her, 2 points higher than among Trump voters. And while half of Clinton backers are mostly voting for her (versus 44 percent voting against Trump), more Trump voters are anti-Clinton (51 percent) than pro-Trump (41 percent). "Despite arguably the worst few weeks of her candidacy, the fundamentals still point toward a Hillary Clinton victory," said Democratic pollster Fred Yang, who conducted the poll with GOP pollster Bill McInturff. McInturff pointed to the good news for Trump: "The electorate narrowly agrees with him that America has lost ground and wants to see a change in direction."

The poll was conducted Sept. 16-19 with 1,000 registered voters with landline phones and cellphones; the margin of error for registered voters is ±3.1 percentage points and for likely voters, ±3.2 points. You can read the granular details or more highlights at NBC News. Peter Weber

September 12, 2016

In a four-way race including Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and Green candidate Jill Stein, Hillary Clinton has a 5-percentage-point lead over Donald Trump among likely voters, according to a Washington Post/ABC News poll released on Sunday. When looking at all registered voters, Clinton's 46 percent to 41 percent lead opens to a 10-point advantage, 45 percent to 35 percent. Johnson has the support of 9 percent of likely voters in the poll and Stein polls at 2 percent. Clinton's 10-point lead among registered voters is actually a 2-point improvement from last month's poll, though other recent national and swing-state surveys have shown a tightening race between Clinton and Trump.

The Washington Post/ABC News poll highlights the challenges and advantages each candidate has with less that two months to go until Election Day. At this point in the race, Trump's supporters are more enthusiastic about their candidate, more engaged in the election, and 93 percent of them say they are sure to vote, versus only 80 percent of Clinton backers. Clinton has a 75 percent to 13 percent lead over Trump among non-white voters, she is tied with him among college-educated white men, and leads him by double-digits among college-educated women, but Trump leads among all white voters, 50 percent to 36 percent. By 2 points, voters judge Clinton more honest and trustworthy than Trump, the poll finds.

Trump's problem with college-educated white men, a group the GOP has won in the past nine elections, "shows the scale of Trump's problem," says The Washington Post's Philip Bump. "His position in the polls has improved. But he continues to need to expand his base if he's to have a real shot at challenging Clinton's lead. Trump spent a month putting a focus on black voters and dallying briefly with softening his position on immigration in an apparent attempt to build a strong relationship with Hispanics. It didn't work." The poll was conducted Sept. 5-8 among 1,002 adults; the margin of error among registered voters is ±4 points and among likely voters, ±4.5 points. You can read the granular details at The Washington Post. Peter Weber

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