The imminent risk of all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah has put renewed focus on the Lebanese militia group and its role – and status – within the deeply divided country.
Dubbed a "state within a state", Hezbollah has "several concerns" that may decide its next steps, Jon Alterman, from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told Vox. One is "maintaining Iranian support" and staying "aligned with Iran's assessments and regional strategy".
The other key concern is domestic. With an estimated 85% of Lebanese people now living below the poverty line, the country is "reeling economically", said Alterman, and "if Hezbollah seems to invite a devastating Israeli assault on Lebanon, then some number of Lebanese would consider that reckless and damaging".
What did the commentators say? Hezbollah is "one of the most heavily armed, non-state military forces in the world", said the BBC. Funded and equipped by Iran, the Shia group has been designated a terrorist organisation by the US and other Western governments, as well as by Israel, Gulf Arab countries and the Arab League.
But within Lebanon, Hezbollah operates as a "legal political party and as a security force", effectively governing large swathes of the country in the south and east, said Foreign Affairs.
The group's popularity among Lebanese citizens is "sharply divided across sectarian lines", according to polling earlier this year by The Washington Institute think tank. While 93% of Shias expressed a positive view of Hezbollah, only 34% of Sunnis and 29% of Christians said the same.
The war in Gaza has seen approval ratings jump, despite Lebanon's economic and political woes. This "likely points to sympathy for Hezbollah's stance toward Israel rather than deep support for the group itself", said Foreign Affairs. But if Israel invades Lebanon to attack Hezbollah, support for the organisation would "likely rise further".
What next? Lebanon's major communities have "largely been consistent in urging restraint and would prefer to see Hezbollah avoid a war with Israel", said Rola El-Husseini, an associate professor at Sweden's Lund University, on The Conversation. But should war break out, the various Lebanese sects will "probably all rally around Hezbollah". |