A contested convention for Democrats?
The New York Times
President Trump “might have an unlikely ally in his re-election bid: Democrats’ mess of a primary system,” said Dave Wasserman. “An overlooked key” to Trump’s 2016 victory was the Republicans’ winner-take-all primary system. This allowed Trump to sew up the GOP nomination relatively quickly, even though he won only a slim plurality of 30 to 40 percent of the vote in many primaries, giving him “a head start at jackhammering away at Hillary Clinton.” The Democrats, by contrast, require states to allocate delegates on a proportional basis, making it difficult for a single candidate “to become a runaway train.” In 2016, Democrats had only two major candidates. But Trump’s dismal approval ratings have attracted a scrum of Democratic hopefuls to the 2020 race, with “no obvious front-runner.” The Democrats’ front-loaded primary calendar could mean many delegates will be widely dispersed among five or six candidates, before the field is winnowed. As a result, no candidate could amass enough delegates to win outright, with superdelegates choosing the candidate at an ugly, divisive convention—alienating the losing factions. If those disaffected Democrats stay home in November 2020, President Trump may be re-elected.