2020 polls
October 13, 2020

An Opinium/Guardian poll released on Tuesday shows Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden with a commanding 17-point lead over President Trump.

The survey found that 57 percent of likely voters plan on voting for Biden, while 40 percent say they will vote for Trump. A CNN poll from last week showed Trump down by 16 points, with 57 percent of likely voters backing Biden and 41 percent supporting the president.

Over the last month, Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg died, Trump and Biden met for their first debate, and Trump and several White House staffers became infected by the coronavirus. All of this helped Biden, Opinium found, with the Democrat gaining 5 percentage points among undecided voters since September. Biden is also now leading Trump on who is best for the economy, at 45 to 43 percent; Trump had an edge on the economy in earlier polls.

Opinium also found that 62 percent of those who voted for Trump in 2016 but will vote for Biden in 2020 said they are switching to the former vice president because of how Trump handled the coronavirus pandemic. When it comes to how people will vote, 55 percent of in-person voters intend to vote for Trump, versus 42 percent who plan on voting for Biden. Among mail-in voters, 75 percent intend to vote for Biden and just 22 percent say they will vote for Trump.

Opinium interviewed 2,003 adults online from Oct. 8 to Oct. 12, and the surveys were sampled and weighted to match the demographics of the U.S. adult population while factoring in education levels and past voting habits. Catherine Garcia

October 7, 2020

New polls by The New York Times and Siena College released on Wednesday show Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden with a healthy lead over President Trump in Nevada, and a virtual tie between the two in Ohio.

Among likely voters in Nevada, Biden led Trump by six points — 48 percent to 42 percent — and in Ohio, they were virtually tied, with Biden ahead by just one point, at 45 to 44 percent. The polls, which were taken after Trump announced he tested positive for COVID-19, found that six percent of Nevada voters and seven percent of Ohio voters are undecided.

Regarding the coronavirus, 62 percent of voters in Nevada and 58 percent of voters in Ohio said Trump did not take adequate precautions to protect himself from the virus. Most also didn't think he should have been holding large rallies — when asked about campaigning during the pandemic, 20 percent of Ohio voters and 28 percent of Nevada voters said it was okay to appear in person before large crowds, but 65 percent of voters in Ohio and 58 percent of voters in Nevada believe the candidates should only hold small events with a few people who are socially distanced.

Women, suburbanites, and third-party voters are giving Biden a boost in both Nevada and Ohio. Among women, Biden leads Trump by 11 percentage points in Ohio and 14 percentage points in Nevada. When it comes to suburban voters Biden is ahead of Trump by 32 percentage points in Nevada and 22 percentage points in Ohio. Biden's support from people who did not vote in 2016 or voted for third-party candidates is massive, with 51 percent backing him in Ohio, compared to 16 percent for Trump, and 45 percent supporting Biden in Nevada, compared to 26 percent for Trump.

The polls were conducted from Oct. 2 to Oct. 6, with 661 likely voters in Ohio and 660 likely voters in Nevada surveyed. The margin of error in both states in 4.3 percentage points. Catherine Garcia

September 30, 2020

A new Quinnipiac University poll released on Wednesday shows Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) and Jaime Harrison, his Democratic challenger, tied at 48 percent among likely voters.

The survey also found that 48 percent of voters see Harrison in a favorable light compared to 43 percent who have a favorable opinion of Graham, and 51 percent of voters have an unfavorable view of Graham, compared to 35 percent who hold an unfavorable view of Harrison. Harrison is outspending Graham on advertisements and also bringing in more money from grassroots supporters, and Graham in turn has been making regular appearances on Fox News, asking viewers for money.

The race is also tight in the state between President Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden, with Trump leading Biden by 1 percentage point, 48 to 47 percent. Trump won South Carolina by about 14 points in 2016, with 54.9 percent of the vote.

The survey was conducted from Sept. 23 to 27, with 1,123 likely voters polled. The margin of error is plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. Catherine Garcia

September 24, 2020

Fox News surveyed likely voters in the battleground states of Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Nevada, and found that Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden leads President Trump in all three.

There aren't many undecided voters, and Biden's support is at 50 percent or better in each state. In all three states, more than half of those who say they will vote in person support Trump, while majorities of those planning on voting by mail back Biden.

In Nevada, Biden has a 52-41 percent lead over Trump. Biden leads Trump among seniors, women, and voters under 35, while Trump has the support of whites, whites without a college degree, and rural voters. In 2016, Trump lost Nevada by less than 3 points, receiving about 46 percent of the vote.

In Ohio, Biden has a 50-45 percent lead over Trump. Women are giving Biden a boost, backing him over Trump by 14 points, while men support Trump by 4 points. Biden's overall advantage comes primarily from his 75-point lead among non-white people. In 2016, Trump won Ohio by 8 points, with 52 percent of the vote.

In Pennsylvania, Biden has a 51-44 percent lead over Trump. Trump eked out a win here in 2016, taking the state by less than 1 percentage point. The poll found that 8 percent of people who voted for Trump in 2016 are Biden supporters today, and 54 percent of respondents disapprove of Trump's job performance. Biden is up 5 points among suburban voters and 18 points among suburban women, while Trump is up 8 points among rural voters.

Republican pollster Daron Shaw conducts the Fox News survey with Democrat Chris Anderson, and he said Trump's "surprise 2016 win in Pennsylvania was driven by his mobilization of voters in the northern and central regions of the state. He needs that kind of support again and a slight tick up among suburban voters to pull even here."

The polls were conducted by telephone Sept. 20 to 23, with 810 likely voters in Nevada, 830 likely voters in Ohio, and 856 likely voters in Pennsylvania. They were selected at random from statewide voter files. Each state has a margin sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Catherine Garcia

July 23, 2020

A new Fox News poll released Thursday shows former Vice President Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, ahead of President Trump in the battleground states of Michigan, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania.

In Michigan, Biden leads Trump by nine points, at 49 to 40 percent. Trump does well with white voters who do not have college degrees, up 10 points over Biden, while women back Biden over Trump by an 18-point margin. In 2016, Trump won Michigan by the narrowest of margins — just 0.23 points.

Biden is up 13 points over Trump in Minnesota, 51 to 38 percent. When asked about issues facing the country today, more voters trust Biden on race relations (by 28 points), the coronavirus response (23 points), and China (10 points). Regarding the handling of the economy, Biden is up by just one point. Hillary Clinton won Minnesota in 2016 by 1.52 points, while former President Barack Obama won by 7.69 points in 2012 and 10.24 points in 2008.

In Pennsylvania, Biden is ahead by 11 points, 50 to 39 percent. Biden has the support of voters under 35 (up 29 points), suburban voters (26 points), and women (17 points), while Trump leads among rural voters (up 17 points) and whites without a college degree (10 points). When it comes to job performance, 43 percent of voters approve of Trump while 56 percent disapprove.

The surveys were conducted July 18-20, with 756 Michigan voters, 776 Minnesota voters, and 793 Pennsylvania voters randomly selected and polled by phone. In all three states, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Catherine Garcia

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