2020 vision
July 23, 2020

Florida is seemingly reconsidering its narrow 2016 vote for President Trump.

While Trump won the state by just a percentage point in 2016, former Vice President Joe Biden has pulled ahead of Trump 51-38, a Quinnipiac University poll out Thursday indicates. Approval for Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) is also down 31 points since the last Quinnipiac Florida poll in April, suggesting rampant COVID-19 spread in the state is at least partially to blame.

Quinnipiac's April poll gave Biden only a 46-42 lead over Trump, but he has since won over 4 percent of independents in the state to widen his lead. Voters overwhelmingly say Biden would also handle the coronavirus better than Trump, 58-38, as well as racial equality, 58-38. Just 37 percent approve of Trump's handling of the coronavirus.

Meanwhile voters give DeSantis, who has been a vocal supporter of Trump since before his election in 2018, a negative approval rating of 41-52, and give his handling of the coronavirus just 38 percent approval. Those are DeSantis' lowest approval numbers since his election, Quinnipiac notes.

The candidate who wins Florida has also won the presidency for the last six elections, adding to the national polls that already put 2020's election in Biden's favor.

Quinnipiac surveyed 924 registered voters in Florida via landline and cell phone from July 16–20, with a margin of error of 3.2 percentage points. Kathryn Krawczyk

January 10, 2020

The Democratic nominee is starting to take shape in FiveThirtyEight's 2020 vision.

The data-driven news site gives former Vice President Joe Biden the best chance of locking down the 2020 Democratic nomination in its primary forecast that debuted Thursday. But things get more complicated beyond the top two candidates, with FiveThirtyEight predicting the Democratic National Committee could arrive at its convention without a nominee.

Democratic candidates need to win more than half of pledged delegates ahead of the convention to land the presidential nomination. Biden has a two in five chance of earning that majority, FiveThirtyEight says, while Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt) has a one in five chance.

But the next most likely outcome isn't that prominent candidates Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) or former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg win the nomination. It's that no one gets a majority of delegates at all, FiveThirtyEight predicts. The chances of ending up with a contested convention are one in seven, FiveThirtyEight forecasts. Warren meanwhile gets a one in eight chance of locking up the nomination, Buttigieg gets 1 in 10, and all the other Democrats out there get a collective one in 40.

Find more of FiveThirtyEight's primary predictions here. Kathryn Krawczyk

May 22, 2019

Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) has announced a plan to protect abortion rights as president, pledging to take executive action.

Booker on Wednesday said that if elected, he will "immediately and decisively take executive action to respond to these relentless efforts to erode Americans' rights to control their own bodies," CNN reports. His announcement comes amid a string of restrictive new laws across the country, and Booker said that "a coordinated attack requires a coordinated response."

This would involve creating a White House Office of Reproductive Freedom to protect abortion rights as well as to expand reproductive health-care access, CBS News reports.

Booker's plan also includes rolling back the "conscience rule," a proposal that would let health-care providers choose not to provide abortion access for religious reasons; end the "domestic gag rule," which prevents federal funding through Title IX from going to Planned Parenthood but has been blocked by a federal judge; and repeal the Hyde Amendment, which bars federal funding from being used for abortion services except in cases of rape, incest, or where the life of the mother is in danger. He also plans to guarantee employer-based coverage for contraceptive care, per CBS.

The New Jersey senator's announcement comes after his 2020 rival, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), also introduced a plan to protect abortion rights with new federal laws codifying Roe v. Wade, an aspect of Booker's proposal as well. Warren said she will "protect access to reproductive care from right-wing ideologues in the states," warning that efforts to have Roe v. Wade overturned "just might work." Brendan Morrow

May 7, 2019

Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) wants to stage an intervention.

The 2020 Democratic presidential hopeful thinks what the U.S. needs now is a "teller of hard truths," who can use "old-school Democratic pragmatism" to get the country back on track, writes The Washington Post.

Klobuchar, a relatively centrist Democrat, is building a platform focused on infrastructure and bipartisanism rather than more progressive policies like Medicare-for-All and the Green New Deal. The strategy comes from a belief that the U.S. needs an intervention, not a revolution, writes the Post.

Her pragmatism is not surprising given her upbringing with her father, Jim Klobuchar, the Post reports. The elder Klobuchar was a star columnist for the Minneapolis Star Tribune, known for providing a "voice to the voiceless." He was an also alcoholic, who would drive under the influence with his daughter in the passenger seat and miss childhood birthdays. But the future senator remained by her father's side all despite all that, intent on trying to help him, the Post reports.

One moment in particular has reportedly informed Klobuchar's presidential campaign. In 1993, Jim Klobuchar was arrested for drunk driving and at his sentencing hearing, Amy Klobuchar took the stand — as the prosecution. She used his past failings in her arguments, but she also told him that she loved him and that he needed to get help with his addiction.

That, the Post writes, is how Klobuchar is running her 2020 campaign — hoping the "hard truths" will prove useful. But "as with any intervention," the Post warns, "the trick will be getting people to listen." Read the full story at The Washington Post. Tim O'Donnell

April 22, 2019

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) is looking to eliminate all student loan debt for tens of millions of Americans.

The 2020 Democratic presidential candidate unveiled the details of her plan in a Medium post on Monday, calling for the cancellation of up to $50,000 in student loan debt for those with a household income of less than $250,000. Those making below $100,000 would have $50,000 forgiven, while those making between $100,000 and $250,000 would be entitled to $1 forgiven for every $3 above $100,000. For example, she says someone with a household income of $130,000 would have $40,000 canceled. Those with a household income of more than $250,000 a year would not have debt eliminated.

Warren says that this plan would cancel all student loan debt for 75 percent of Americans and at least some debt for 95 percent of Americans.

Additionally, she says every American will be able to attend a two-year or four-year public college tuition-free. This plan will cost $1.25 trillion over 10 years, according to Warren's estimates, and she says her proposed wealth tax will pay for it.

This is just the latest major policy proposal to be announced by Warren in recent weeks; she previously announced a plan to break up the major tech companies and unveiled a universal child-care proposal. Warren in an interview with CNN's MJ Lee touted her new plan and said it "goes further" than Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.). Brendan Morrow

March 11, 2019

Democrats have reportedly chosen a site for their 2020 convention.

The 2020 Democratic National Convention will be held in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, The Associated Press reported on Monday. This was one of three finalists for the location along with Houston and Miami, though some top Democrats were reportedly worried Milwaukee would be a poor choice because of the city's size and the number of upscale amenities. AP points out that this is the first Midwest city other than Chicago to be selected for the Democratic National Convention in more than a century. The last several conventions were held in Philadelphia, Charlotte, Denver, Boston, Los Angeles, Chicago, and New York.

Wisconsin is a notable choice considering it's one of several key states Hillary Clinton unexpectedly lost to President Trump in 2016, allowing him to reach 270 electoral votes. Trump defeated Clinton by a narrow margin of fewer than 25,000 votes in Wisconsin. The city of Milwaukee celebrated the DNC's news on its official Twitter account on Monday.

The 2020 Democratic National Convention will take place from July 13 through July 16. Republicans will hold their convention from August 24 through August 27 in Charlotte, North Carolina. Brendan Morrow

February 13, 2019

The Census Bureau is trying to figure out how to reach millennials who don't use the mail or answer the phone, and they'd love LeBron James' help.

A Wednesday report from report from Pew explains that the bureau is expecting to have trouble reaching young people in 2020, and they're "aware that young urban renters are less likely than they were in 2010 to communicate by mail, by phone or with strangers at the door." To combat this, the bureau is "developing social media and other internet publicity" so that millennials can take the census online.

Part of the problem, the report explains, is that the bureau used to mail respondents a physical form and then follow up by visiting in person or calling a landline phone. But Pew notes that the majority of people between the age of 25 and 34 don't even have a landline they can be reached at, and many said they don't check their mail.

"Mail? I feel like that's a dead thing," a 36-year-old Washington, D.C. resident told Pew. "And I don't have a lot of people randomly knocking at my front door, so I would be a little weirded out. 'Census Bureau!' It sounds like a joke. It sounds like you just want me to open my door. So I probably wouldn't." Other complications include millennials who have several roommates and don't want to answer "household" questions, and little understanding of why the census matters.

Posting the census online should hopefully help in 2020, and the census' communications chief told Pew that having a celebrity promote them wouldn't hurt, either. He explained, "Somebody like LeBron James could say, 'It's halftime! Pull out your phones, and let's answer the census!" Read more at Pew. Brendan Morrow

January 15, 2019

Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) indicated on Tuesday he's seriously considering a run for president in 2020, announcing that he plans on traveling to early-primary states over the next few weeks to meet with voters.

Brown will visit Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina on what he's calling the Dignity of Work Tour. After a stop in Cleveland on Jan. 30, Brown will head to Iowa on Jan. 31, and will visit the other three states in February. "Some national Democrats, they've created this sort of binary choice that you speak to the progressive base or you talk to working class voters of all races," Brown told reporters. "I don't think it's an either or. I think you do both. That's how you win the heartland. That's how we won in Ohio. That's what I hope the narrative is for all the presidential candidates on the Democratic side."

Brown made the announcement just hours after Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) revealed on The Late Show with Stephen Colbert she is launching a presidential exploratory committee. Catherine Garcia

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