Poll Watch
January 11, 2020

In one of the most extensive studies so far on the views of the 2020 presidential race among black voters conducted by The Washington Post and non-partisan research firm, Ipsos, former Vice President Joe Biden is holding on to a commanding lead over the rest of the Democratic field.

Biden picked up 48 percent of the vote in the survey, which amounts to a whopping 28 point lead over the next candidate in line, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.). Voters referenced Biden's experience and ability to take on President Trump head to head as some of the reasons he's garnered their support to date. In the South, which could be a key region for picking up delegates in the primaries, Biden's doing even better at 53 percent.

The notable exception to Biden's dominance is age. Black voters between 18 and 34 support Sanders at 42 percent, thanks to his policies on housing and student debt, for example, per the Post. Still, Biden remains in second place among the demographic with 30 percent.

The Post-Ipsos survey was conducted online between Jan. 2-8 from a sample of 769 Democratic-leaning black voters. The margin of error is 3.5 percentage points. Read more at The Washington Post. Tim O'Donnell

January 5, 2020

The campaign team for Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) was likely pleased with the latest CBS News surveys released Sunday, which have the Democratic presidential candidate moving to the front of the pack in Iowa and New Hampshire.

In the poll, Sanders is locked in a dead heat in Iowa at 23 percent with former Vice President Joe Biden and former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, while the Vermont senator holds a two point lead over Biden in New Hampshire.

Part of the reason Sanders has risen to the top is because of enthusiasm — in Iowa, 67 percent of Sanders' voters feel good about their choice, compared to just 49 percent who are going with Biden for now. But the former vice president still has a good shot to remain the top vote-getter in Iowa because 53 percent of voters think he's the "safest" choice. Only 20 percent, on the other hand, think Sanders isn't risky.

The CBS News surveys were conducted by YouGov between Dec. 27, 2019, and and Jan. 3, 2020. The polls consisted of 953 and 519 self-identified Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents in Iowa and New Hampshire, respectively. The margin of error was 3.8 percentage points in Iowa and 5.3 percentage points in New Hampshire. Tim O'Donnell

December 31, 2019

New polls from Virginia and Florida painted a fairly promising picture for President Trump's 2020 chances in the two key swing states. That is, unless former Vice President Joe Biden maintains his lead atop the Democratic field.

Mason-Dixon surveys released Tuesday show Trump leading every top Democratic contender besides Biden in both states.

Despite Mason-Dixon getting a B+ rating from FiveThirtyEight, some analysts are a bit skeptical of the numbers, especially in Virginia. The poll shows quite a surprising recovery for the president, and the state's recent electoral history would suggest it may lean away from Trump. But, if accurate, it could be a cause for worry for the Democratic Party.

Mason-Dixon surveyed 625 registered voters in Virginia and 625 voters in Florida between Dec. 11 and Dec. 16. The margin of error was ± 4 percentage points. Tim O'Donnell

December 16, 2019

Former Vice President Joe Biden is the only Democratic presidential candidate to maintain a general election lead over President Trump, a new IDB/TIPP poll released Monday shows.

Biden, who is also holding on to a relatively comfortable lead over the Democratic field in the poll, is shown beating Trump by 5 percentage points. While that's decent news for the former vice president, Trump actually cut into Biden's lead from IDB/TIPP's previous poll last month. Still, it's a better look than Biden's top two challengers at the moment, Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), who fell behind the president after leading Trump by 7 and 8 percentage points in the November poll.

South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg and billionaire and former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg also trailed Trump, but like Sanders and Warren remain within striking distance.

The IDB/TIPP Poll was conducted over the phone between Dec. 5-14. The sample includes responses from 905 adults and the margin of error is 3.3 percentage points. Read more at Investor's Business Daily. Tim O'Donnell

December 15, 2019

Most Democratic voters in Super Tuesday states don't want to do any dreaming this election. Instead they want a candidate with some old-fashioned practicality, a new CBS News/YouGov poll shows.

Among the Democrats, or Democrat-leaning, voters polled, 59 percent said they prefer a practical nominee compared to just 19 percent who said they want a idealistic one. That's apparently a good thing for former Vice President Joe Biden who led among those surveyed who prefer a practical candidate. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) is the favorite among the idealistic crowd, while the other top contender at the moment, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), held steady in both groups.

Somewhat surprisingly, the numbers are pretty consistent across demographics. Men and women prefer practicality at the same rate, as do millennials and baby boomers. And those who consider themselves to be more liberal in ideology are actually more in favor of practicality than conservative-leaning Democratic voters, who appreciate idealism at a higher clip. Black voters have one of the lowest rates favoring practicality at just 44 percent, but there's not much variation when it comes to idealism, which hovers at 22 percent. The difference, therefore, comes from the 34 percent who aren't sure which they prefer.

The CBS Survey was conducted by YouGov between Dec. 3 and Dec. 11. The sample includes 10,379 self-identified Democrats and Democrat-leaning voters in 14 states expected to hold primaries on Super Tuesday. The margin of error is 1.3 percentage points. Read the full results here. Tim O'Donnell

November 26, 2019

The latest Democratic primary poll released Tuesday by Quinnipiac University did not come bearing good tidings for Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.).

Warren, one of the presidential primary's frontrunners, had been leading the poll for the past several months, surging ahead of former Vice President Joe Biden. But she appeared to be in free fall this time around, dropping 14 points. Biden took back the lead and South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg jumped up 6 points into second place.

The good news for Warren is that she's still in third place and is one of only four candidates to reach double figures. Of course, the poll itself seems pretty malleable at this point, considering she fell drastically after a steady rise. But, regardless, it's tough to imagine there's anything confidence-boosting about the numbers.

The poll was conducted over the phone by Quinnipiac University which surveyed 1,355 registered U.S. voters between Nov. 21-25. The margin of error was 3.2 percentage points. Read the full results here. Tim O'Donnell

November 17, 2019

There's been another changing of the guard in Iowa.

South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg took the lead for the first time in the latest Democratic primary poll out of Iowa. The Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom poll, released Saturday, showed the mayor surging to the top ahead of Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and former Vice President Joe Biden.

It doesn't look like a fluke, though there's been some fluctuation in Iowa throughout the primary's early going. Buttigieg took a relatively commanding lead over the field for the time being, receiving support from 25 percent of likely Iowa caucusgoers in the poll, a startling 16 point leap from his September standing. Warren, who was leading the September poll, fell by six points into second place at 16 percent, while Biden and Sanders were right behind her at 15 percent. Biden, the early frontrunner, fell another five percentage points, but Sanders picked up four.

The poll was conducted between Nov. 8-13, and 500 likely Iowa Democratic caucusgoers were surveyed. The margin of error was 4.4 percentage points. Read more at Des Moines Register. Tim O'Donnell

November 13, 2019

Pete Buttigieg, the mayor of South Bend, Indiana, is the new frontrunner in Monmouth University's poll of Iowa Democratic presidential caucusgoers. In the poll, released Tuesday, Buttigieg got support from 22 percent of likely caucusgoers, jumping 14 percentage points from Monmouth's last poll in August. Former Vice President Joe Biden lost 7 points, falling to second place with 19 percent support, and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) lost 2 points, coming in at 18 percent. The only other candidate with double-digit support was Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), who gained 5 points to 13 percent support. When first and second choices were combined, Buttigieg led Warren 37 percent to 35 percent.

Buttigieg's support increased across all major demographics. At the same time, only 28 percent of likely caucus goers said they are committed to their candidate, and most said they are open to the possibility of switching contenders. Monmouth conducted the poll Nov. 7-11 among 451 likely Democratic caucus goers; its margin of sampling error is ±4.6 percentage points. Peter Weber

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