Presidential polling
July 24, 2018

Even President Trump's base has not been impressed with his performance lately.

Just 38 percent of voters approve of how Trump handles his job, a Quinnipiac University poll published Tuesday found. Among white voters without a college degree, who largely voted for Trump in 2016, 49 percent said they approved and 47 disapproved. While that approval rate is high compared to most other demographic groups, it's a significant drop from just last month, when the same group of voters approved of Trump's performance 57-36 percent.

The poll gives some hint of what may have caused the sudden drop: Most voters said Trump's summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin was a failure for the U.S., and a wide majority said it was a success for Russia. More than half — 54 percent of voters overall — say Trump was not acting in the "best interest" of the U.S., and 48 percent of white voters without college degrees agreed. The summit with Putin, combined with Trump's aggression toward NATO allies and the ongoing investigation into whether his campaign colluded with Russian interference in the 2016 election, have given Trump his lowest approval ratings since February.

Republicans overall still say they approve of the president, as do white evangelical Christian voters. But white men, who last month approved by a margin of 12 percentage points, are currently divided, with 49 percent approving and 47 percent disapproving.

The Quinnipiac poll was conducted July 18-23, surveying 1,177 voters reached by phone. There is a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points. See more results at Quinnipiac. Summer Meza

November 7, 2016

A new national poll by Monmouth University released Monday put Hillary Clinton comfortably in the lead. On the eve of Election Day, Clinton has a 6-point advantage over Donald Trump among likely voters, 50 percent to 44 percent. Though Clinton's latest winning margin is far narrower than the 12-point lead she boasted in the same poll in mid-October, it's an improvement from the 4-point lead she held in September. The RealClearPolitics polling average shows Clinton 2.9 points ahead in the four-way race for the presidency.

Moreover, even voters who don't support Clinton are guessing she'll claim a victory on Election Day. Monmouth University reported that "regardless of who they support," a whopping 57 percent of likely voters said they think Clinton will win Tuesday. Only 28 percent are betting on Trump.

The poll was conducted by phone from Nov. 3-6 among likely voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.6 percentage points. Becca Stanek

November 2, 2016

Hillary Clinton's paths to victory in the battleground states of Pennsylvania, Florida, Nevada, and Arizona are exceptionally slim in new CNN/ORC polls released Wednesday. The polls were taken from Oct. 27-Nov. 1, right in the midst of the unfolding drama over FBI Director James Comey's announcement that more emails had been found that may be pertinent to the Clinton email investigation.

Clinton leads in the historically blue state of Pennsylvania by just 4 points among likely voters, 48 percent to 44 percent. When the CNN/ORC poll was last taken there in late September, Clinton led by just 1 point, though the RealClearPolitics polling average still shows her 6 points ahead in the Keystone State.

In Florida, Clinton barely leads Trump, 49 percent to 47 percent — but this is a rosier forecast for Clinton than RealClearPolitics shows, as that average puts Trump ahead by 1 point. The last CNN/ORC poll taken in Florida, back in September, showed the two candidates in a dead heat, with Clinton leading 45 percent to 44 percent.

Meanwhile, Trump has taken the lead in Nevada, 49 percent to 43 percent — a big shift from Clinton's 2-point lead there in mid-October. Moreover, Trump's new lead in the poll dwarfs his edge in the RealClearPolitics average, which shows him just 1.6 points ahead.

In Arizona, Trump is ahead by 5 points, the same lead he held in August when the poll was last taken. Trump's winning margin in the CNN/ORC poll is more than twice his 2.4-point lead in RealClearPolitics average.

NBC's Benjy Sarlin argues it's hard to tell if the new numbers are just a "low point" for Clinton, or whether they're truly a "new normal," given the data was collected right after Comey's surprise announcement. CNN conducted the polls via telephone, and each has a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points among likely voters. The Pennsylvania poll surveyed 799 likely voters, the Florida poll surveyed 773, the Nevada poll surveyed 790, and the Arizona poll surveyed 769. Becca Stanek

October 29, 2016

Hillary Clinton's lead over Donald Trump drastically diminished in a new ABC News/Washington Post national poll released Saturday. Clinton is now ahead of Trump by just 2 points among likely voters, 47 percent to 45 percent, and within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. In an average of polls taken over four days released last weekend, Clinton led by 12 points, 50 percent to 38 percent. Notably, the new poll was taken before FBI Director James Comey announced Friday that the bureau would be reopening its investigation into Clinton's use of a private email server during her tenure as secretary of state.

Clinton has also slipped in Real Clear Politics' four-way polling average, though not to as slim a margin as in the new ABC News/Washington Post poll. On average, she leads by 3.8 points.

The poll was conducted by phone Oct. 24-27 among 1,148 likely voters. Becca Stanek

October 27, 2016

New polls of the swing states conducted by Quinnipiac University show Hillary Clinton claiming leads in Virginia and North Carolina, but neck-and-neck with Donald Trump in Georgia and Iowa. Perhaps most importantly, however, the Quinnipiac results released Thursday are improvements across the board for Clinton from the previous Quinnipiac poll results released Sept. 22.

In the four-way matchup including Gary Johnson and Jill Stein in Virginia, Clinton led by 12 points, 50 percent to 38 percent. The last time Quinnipiac polled Virginia, Clinton's lead was much slimmer, at 45 percent to 39 percent. In North Carolina, Clinton's winning margin inched up, from 3 points on Oct. 3 to 4 points in Thursday's results, with the Democrat leading 47 percent to 43 percent.

In Georgia, the two candidates are locked in a statistical tie, with the GOP nominee edging Clinton 44 percent to 43 percent. This marks a big leap for Clinton, who trailed Trump by 7 points in the Peach State at the end of September. In Iowa, both Clinton and Trump snagged 44 percent — another big gain for Clinton, who trailed Trump there in September with 37 percent support to his 44 percent.

"Time is running out and Donald Trump has lost his leads and now is tied with Hillary Clinton in Iowa and Georgia. North Carolina appears to be moving in her direction also," said Quinnipiac University Poll assistant director Peter Brown. "It's clear that Donald Trump has not worn well on the voters of these four key states," Brown added.

The polls were conducted by phone from Oct. 20-26. In Virginia, 749 likely voters were polled and the margin of error is plus or minus 3.6 percentage points. In North Carolina, 702 likely voters were polled and the margin of error is plus or minus 3.7 percentage points. In Georgia, 707 likely voters were polled and the margin of error is plus or minus 3.7 percentage points. In Iowa, 791 likely voters were polled and the margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Becca Stanek

October 17, 2016

As Donald Trump continues his slide in the polls, sparked in part by the influx of women coming forward to accuse the Republican nominee of sexual assault, the traditional electoral map is getting a shake-up. New polls released Monday show Hillary Clinton, the Democratic nominee, pulling into a virtual tie in the usually deep-red states of Georgia and Alaska.

In Georgia, a state that last voted blue for Bill Clinton in 1992, the CBS News/YouGov election model as of Sunday shows Hillary Clinton ever-so-slightly leading Trump with 45.8 percent support to his 45.4 percent in the four-way match-up, which includes third-party candidates Gary Johnson and Jill Stein. Clinton held a slightly wider lead there in the same model Saturday, when she led Trump by 3 points — but the results are still a departure from the idea of the Peach State as a surefire win for the GOP. On average, Trump is still ahead in Georgia, as he leads the RealClearPolitics average by 5.5 points in the four-way race.

In Alaska, polling data provided to The Midnight Sun by the Alaska Democratic Party shows Clinton just one point behind Trump, pulling 36 percent support to his 37 percent in the four-way race. The poll was conducted by Lake Research Group, which is based in Washington, D.C., from Oct. 11-13, and included 500 likely voters. Trump's 1-point lead falls within the poll's 4.4-point margin of error; in August, the last time Lake Research Group polled Alaska voters, Trump led Clinton by 8 points. FiveThirtyEight's election forecast as of Monday puts Trump's chances of winning the state at 65.8 percent. Alaska last tilted left in a general election in 1964. Kimberly Alters

October 14, 2016

Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by 7 points in a four-way race, 45 percent to 38 percent, according to the latest Fox News national poll, which was conducted after the second presidential debate. Head-to-head, Clinton's lead widened to 8 points, 49 percent to 41 percent. Clinton's winning margin in the poll is well outside the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points, and about on par with the Real Clear Politics polling average, which puts her 6.7 points ahead. The poll was taken by phone from Oct. 10-12 among 917 likely voters.

Clinton is also ahead in some new swing state polls, claiming leads in North Carolina in an NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist survey (45 percent to 41 percent) and in New Hampshire in a MassINC Polling Group/WBUR-FM poll (45 percent to 39 percent). In the Real Clear Politics averages, Clinton leads North Carolina by 2.9 points and New Hampshire by 3.6 points.

In Ohio, meanwhile, the Marist poll found Clinton and Trump virtually tied, with Trump claiming 42 percent and Clinton getting 41 percent. That's a bit tighter of a contest than what's reflected in the Real Clear Politics polling average, which puts Clinton ahead by 1.6 points.

The MassINC Polling Group/WBUR-FM was conducted from Oct. 10-12 among 501 likely voters, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. The NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls of Ohio and North Carolina were conducted Oct. 10-12 and both have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points. The North Carolina poll surveyed 743 likely voters; the Ohio poll was conducted among 724 likely voters. Becca Stanek

October 13, 2016

A new Monmouth University poll out of Utah shows Donald Trump holding on to a slim lead in the historically red state. In a five-way race — which includes long-shot independent candidate Evan McMullin, a Utah native of Mormon faith — Trump leads Hillary Clinton by just 6 points, 34 percent support to 28 percent. McMullin is third in the poll with 20 percent support, while Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson earns 9 percent support and Green Party candidate Jill Stein earns 1 percent.

While Utah is traditionally a secure state for Republicans, even Trump's slim lead in the Monmouth poll is encouraging for the GOP, given that earlier this week a statewide poll by a Salt Lake City-based data firm showed Trump and Clinton tied in the five-way race, each with 26 percent support.

But perhaps most notable about Monmouth's results is the fact that more respondents said they shared values with Clinton, the Democratic nominee, than said the same about Trump, the purportedly conservative Republican nominee. Roughly 6 in 10 Utahns identify as of Mormon faith, Monmouth noted, yet only 24 percent of voters said Trump shared their values, compared to 29 percent for Clinton.

The Monmouth poll was conducted over the phone from Oct. 10-12, and included 403 likely voters in Utah. It has a margin of error of 4.9 percent. In the five-way race, including McMullin, RealClearPolitics finds Trump holding an 8-point lead on average. Kimberly Alters

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