america votes
October 25, 2020

As of Sunday morning, nearly 60 million Americans have cast their ballots in the 2020 presidential election.

The U.S. Elections Project, an independent data analysis project by the University of Florida, reports that of the 59,399,395 ballots cast, 39,909,913 are from mail-in voting and 19,489,482 are in-person votes. More than one-third of those votes are from California, Texas, and Florida, the U.S. Elections Project says — the three most populous states. The early votes amount to more than 42 percent of all votes cast in 2016.

Larry Sabato, founder and director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, told The Guardian there are long lines at early voting sites around the country because "people really have bought into the understanding that if this isn't the most important election we've ever had, it's one of several. People are determined to express themselves and we all know why: Donald Trump. This includes his base: The cult is going to support the cult leader. But there are more, maybe quite a bit more, who want to end this nightmare. And that's the way people put it. If you don't like the word, I'm sorry — that's just the way it is."

Sabato said there is a "hidden campaign that people haven't talked about," which involves Trump's team spending the last four years identifying Trump supporters who weren't registered in 2016 or didn't vote. While Democrats have the edge on early voting and Republicans traditionally have turned out in higher numbers on Election Day, it's risky to "put all your chips" on that final day to vote, Sabato said.

"Suppose there's a hurricane barreling toward Florida," he continued. "Almost certainly there will be really bad weather in at least a couple of swing states, you know, lots of things happen in life, and maybe the spike up in coronavirus will keep a lot of these older Republicans away on the day." Catherine Garcia

October 22, 2020

About 47.5 million ballots have already been cast in the U.S. presidential election, data compiled by the U.S. Elections Project shows.

This is about eight times the number of early votes cast at this same time in 2016, Reuters reports. That year, more than 47.2 million early votes were eventually cast.

Because of the coronavirus pandemic and safety concerns, more people are using mail-in ballots or taking advantage of early in-person voting. University of Florida Prof. Michael McDonald administers the U.S. Elections Project, and he predicts there will be a record turnout of 150 million — the highest rate since 1908. This would represent 65 percent of all eligible voters.

FiveThirtyEight is projecting something similar — forecasting that the total election turnout will be 154 million, with an 80th percentile range between 144 million and 165 million. In 2016, turnout was 137 million. "The primary ingredient in our turnout estimate is polls that ask people whether they're more or less enthusiastic about voting than usual, and those polls are showing record levels of enthusiasm," editor-in-chief Nate Silver tweeted. Catherine Garcia

See More Speed Reads