arizona showdown
September 16, 2020

Arizona's Senate delegation is probably going to look a bit different come November first.

Poll after poll keeps putting Democrat Mark Kelly ahead of Sen. Martha McSally (R), including one released Wednesday that puts Kelly 10 points over the incumbent. That leaves Arizona poised to completely flip both its Senate seats in a span of two years, and adds to Democrats' chances of winning the Senate this fall.

An OH Predictive Insights poll of 600 likely Arizona voters released Wednesday shows 52 percent of voters plan to choose Kelly this fall, while 42 percent are siding with McSally. Kelly has a significant lead among Hispanic voters, 60-36 percentage points, and has a 57-35 lead among voters who consider themselves moderate. A CBS News/YouGov poll out Monday similarly gives Kelly a 7-point lead over McSally, while a Gravis Marketing poll out Saturday puts Kelly 5 points over McSally.

Kelly is married to former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, who has become a gun control advocate after she was shot at an event in 2011. That, along with Kelly's astronaut background, has helped add to his popularity throughout the race. But the same fortune doesn't completely extend to Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden, who has just a 47-44 lead over President Trump in the CBS News/YouGov poll.

OH Predictive Insights polled 600 likely Arizona voters via phone from Sept. 8–10, with a margin of error of 4 percentage points. Kathryn Krawczyk

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