blast from the electoral past
October 21, 2020

This year's election is looking familiar.

Polls have long given Democratic nominee Joe Biden a big advantage in this year's presidential race. And with more forecasting Democratic gains in the Senate as well, pollsters and analysts have started to compare 2020 to 1980. That's when former President Ronald Reagan swept the U.S. in a landslide, and Republicans ousted 12 Democrats in the Senate.

One of those pollsters estimating a blue wave is Charlie Cook, who runs The Cook Political Report. Cook noted in a Wednesday tweet that a big presidential win doesn't necessarily mean a complete wave — it didn't in 1972 and 1984. But he thinks this year's likely big win for Biden will be different, recalling how the losses trickled in for Democrats in 1980 and saying this year's Senate losses for Republicans "won't hit 12 but could get to be a pretty big number."

The idea's most ardent defender is Joe Trippi, who has been working on Democratic campaigns since 1980. He has repeated over and over that this year's election looks much more like 1980 than 2016, crediting the fatigue voters already feel after just four years of Trump.

Cook's insistence that just one Democratic-held Senate seat is in play this year versus nine Republican seats has only added to Trippi's evidence. Kathryn Krawczyk

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