california pollin'
June 13, 2019

California might just dismantle the 2020 race as we know it.

On Thursday, the Los Angeles Times published the results of a UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll surveying registered voters on Democratic presidential contenders. Its results aren't too different from preceding polls', but these three big takeaways show just how groundbreaking it still is.

1. Bad news for Biden. Sure, former Vice President Joe Biden earned the most support of any 2020 Democrat in California, coming in at 22 percent. But he's just four points ahead of Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), putting him very close to the three percent margin of error for this poll and proving his seemingly far-flung lead is within striking distance, at least in one state.

2. Warren on the rise. Speaking of Warren, this is the second consecutive poll where she's managed to pull into second place over Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.). She earns 18 percent support to Sanders' 17 percent. And when voters' first and second choices in this poll are combined, Warren scores the highest at 35 percent to Biden's 34 and Sanders' 29.

3. Harris' hopes are fading. Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) has had a mid-tier showing throughout the presidential race, and her home state's poll shows nothing different. She comes in fourth with 13 percent support, but does rise up to tie with Biden at 34 percent when first- and second-choice votes are combined. "Harris needs strong support in her home state’s primary if she is to have a shot at the party’s presidential nomination," the Los Angeles Times writes, indicating that things aren't looking too good.

UC Berkeley surveyed 4,435 registered voters from June 4-10, and 2,131 of them are considered likely voters. Interviews were conducted via email in English and Spanish with a sampling error of three percent. Kathryn Krawczyk

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