changing tide
April 29, 2019

President Trump has seemingly lost his lock on some key voting groups.

In an earlier analysis of 2016 voter data, Pew Research Center found that Trump easily won over voters age 65 and up, with a margin of 53-44. Yet that group may now be at risk for Trump, with 53 percent saying they definitely wouldn't vote for him in 2020, a Washington Post/ABC News poll has found.

Beyond seniors, the Washington Post/ABC News poll also shows Trump's support among other groups is waning. A solid 62 percent of women now say they definitely won't vote for Trump in 2020, and 41 percent of white women without a college degree say the same. Per Pew's 2016 analysis, Trump only lost 54 percent and 34 percent of those groups to Hillary Clinton, respectively.

Trump is also seeing a significant loss of independent voters, with 42 percent voting against him in 2016 and 51 percent saying they definitely won't now, the Washington Post/ABC News poll reveals. That could be an especially troubling sign for Trump, seeing as independents make up about a third of the U.S. electorate. And senior voters, as Pew's analysis showed in 2016, make up a bit more than a quarter.

The Washington Post/ABC News poll surveyed 1,001 adults from April 22-25, with 65 percent surveyed on cell phones and 35 percent on landlines, and with a 3.5 percent margin of error. Kathryn Krawczyk

January 31, 2019

President Trump's negative immigration rhetoric doesn't appear to be very persuasive.

Back in 1994, 63 percent of Americans seemingly agreed with Trump's current anti-migrant message, saying immigrants burdened the country. But today, the reverse is true: 62 percent of Americans now say "immigrants strengthen our country because of their hard work and talents," a Pew Research Center poll published Thursday shows.

That change of heart is mostly due to Democrats, the poll shows. In 1994, both parties were pretty much tied, with 32 percent of Democrats and 30 percent of the GOP calling immigrants a strength, Pew says. But now, a record 83 percent of Democrats say immigrants strengthen our country, while just 38 percent of Republicans say the same. The two parties have never been more at odds about this issue, and generally felt the same about immigrants until they split in 2006.

Views on immigrants are easily defined by generation as well, the Pew survey shows. Just 44 percent of the Silent generation, born between 1928-1945, said immigrants strengthen our country, while 75 percent of millennials agreed. The perception of immigrants has generally improved since 1994 — a year when some millennials weren't even born — but has remained more stagnant among older generations.

Pew surveyed 1,505 people via landline and cell phone from Jan. 9-14 with a margin of error of 3 percentage points. See more poll results here. Kathryn Krawczyk

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