future assessment
August 18, 2019

There's been a lot of talk of U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson's government orchestrating Britain's departure from the European Union on Oct. 31 without a deal if the two sides can't come to terms on a new agreement by then. But what would a no-deal Brexit actually look like?

A leaked dossier compiled by the United Kingdom's Cabinet Office might have the answer and it's not a particularly pretty picture.

The government documents predicted that the country will face a three-month meltdown at its ports, a hard Irish border, and shortages of fuel, food, and medicine if it leaves the European Union without a deal on Oct. 31. Without a withdrawal agreement, the document says, the U.K. will "be vulnerable to severe extended delays" for medical supplies and food, with rising prices also a possibility. A hard Irish border would also be difficult to avoid, per the documents.

There appears to be a debate over whether the documents represent the worst-case scenario for a no-deal Brexit or if they are the British government's actual, realistic assessment of the possible situation.

A senior source said the document is "not Project Fear," but "the most realistic assessment of what the public face with no deal." But that notion has been disputed. Chancellor Michael Gove said it is, in fact, a worst-case scenario report, while the government of British territory Gibraltar took it a step further, arguing that the papers were "out of date" and the issues in it have "already been dealt with." Tim O'Donnell

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