poll update
September 22, 2019

There's been a changing of the guard in Iowa — for now, at least.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) passed former Vice President Joe Biden for the lead in the Democratic presidential primaries in a new Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom poll of likely Iowa caucusgoers, which was released Saturday. Warren picked up 22 percent in the poll, which gives her a two-point edge over Biden. Further, 71 percent of those polled said they're at least considering Warren, the highest mark among the candidates.

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) trailed Warren and Biden with 11 percent, and no other candidate reached double digits, though South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg was close at 9 percent. "This is the first major shakeup," said J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., which conducted the poll. "It's the first time we've had someone other than Joe Biden at the top of the leader board." Only one in five likely caucusgoers said their minds were made up, however.

Warren has been rising steadily in Iowa for some time. In December 2018, she was only at 8 percent in the same poll. That increased slightly to 9 percent in March, and then 15 percent in June. The most recent poll was conducted between Sept. 14-18 and surveyed 602 likely Democratic caucusgoers. The margin of error was 4 percentage points. Read more at The Des Moines Register and CNN. Tim O'Donnell

August 19, 2019

Voters are finding it ever more likely that Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) has a good shot at unseating President Trump if she wins the Democratic nomination, a new Economist/YouGov poll shows.

Former Vice President Joe Biden has been running on the notion that he'd be able to swing middle-of-the-road voters in middle-of-the-road states back to the blue side after their dalliance with the GOP in 2016, making him the candidate with the best "electability" claim. But Warren is gaining on him. A healthy 65 percent of Democratic voters polled still said that Biden would "probably beat Donald Trump" in the general election, while Warren received the second highest mark in that area, with 57 percent.

Sure, those eight percentage points don't make for an insignificant gap, but Warren has vaulted 14 points since a previous poll in June, while Biden's figure has stagnated. And the two actually drew even closer among those who say each candidate would "probably lose" to Trump, with 16 percent of Democratic voters feeling pessimistic about Biden's chances and 18 percent for Warren.

Faiz Shakir, the campaign manager for Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), said that Biden's case "rests on some weak assumptions," anyway. "You have to excite people about where you want to take this country," he said. Bloomberg notes that candidates like Sanders and Warren, for example, are focused more on bringing in new votes from people who sat out the 2016 election because of disenchantment, in contrast to Biden's determination to flip voters. That said, Biden still has more than his fair share of believers.

"We can't take a chance, and Joe Biden is our best chance," Henry Singleton, a New Yorker who watched the major Democratic candidates make their pitch to black voters at the NAACP convention in Detroit last month, told Bloomberg.

The Economist/YouGov poll was conducted between August 10-13 through web-based interviews with 1,500 U.S. adult citizens. The margin of error was 3 percentage points. Tim O'Donnell

June 9, 2019

Former Vice President Joe Biden is still leading the pack of Democratic presidential candidates in CNN's latest Iowa poll, but the new iteration shows a tighter field than other national polls.

Biden holds 24 percent of the vote, trailed by Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) at 16 and 15 percent, respectively. South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg polled at 14 percent, while Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) was the only other candidate in the crowded, 24-person field to surpass the five percent threshold, after she secured seven percent. Biden generally hovers around 30 percent in national polls, but this is the first major poll conducted in Iowa since his entry into the race in April.

Voters were also asked which candidates they were "actively considering" for president. Only Biden, Warren, Sanders, Buttigieg, and Harris tallied over 50 percent in that category.

Most of the Democratic field will be in Iowa on Sunday night for a Democratic Party fundraiser in Cedar Rapids, though Biden will not be in attendance because of family obligations, CNN reports.

The CNN/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll was conducted between June 2 and June 5 over the phone. It surveyed people from a random sampling of 600 likely Democratic caucus participants. The margin of error is 4 percentage points. Read more at CNN. Tim O'Donnell

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