the swingiest state
October 20, 2020

North Carolina could be in for a blue wave.

A Washington Post/ABC News poll released Tuesday showed Democratic nominee Joe Biden and President Trump with a statistical tie in the state that's gone red in the past two presidential elections. Also on Tuesday, Sabato's Crystal Ball slid Iowa's Senate race into Democratic territory, leaving North Carolina the only tossup on the map.

In a poll of 646 North Carolina likely voters taken Oct. 12-17, Biden received 49 percent support to Trump's 48 percent, the Post and ABC News found. The poll's 4.5 percent margin of error prevents either candidate from having a distinct advantage, though it mirrors several other polls taken over the past month that all put Biden slightly ahead. The Post/ABC News poll also showed Democrat Cal Cunningham at 49 percent support to Sen. Thom Tillis' (R-N.C.) 47 percent.

Sabato's Crystal Ball, which projects race outcomes across the country, meanwhile made a big change in its Senate projection on Tuesday. It suggested Sen. Joni Ernst's (R-Iowa) seat would likely go to Democrat Theresa Greenfield, predicting a gain of four seats for Democrats and a loss of one in Alabama. That leaves North Carolina the only tossup on the map, and a critical race if Democrats want a Senate majority. If Sabato's projection pans out, Democrats would nab 50 seats, with North Carolina remaining the difference between a tie and blue advantage. Kathryn Krawczyk

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