June 17, 2019

There's an actual chance Texas will go blue in 2020.

Half of registered Texas voters said they "definitely" or "probably" will not reelect President Trump next year, per a University of Texas at Austin and Texas Tribune poll published Monday. The other half answered that they "definitely" or "probably" will, lending more credence to Texas' designation as a 2020 swing state.

In the poll of 1,200 registered voters, a solid 39 percent said they definitely would vote to reelect Trump next year. But a greater portion, 43 percent, said they would definitely not. Another 11 percent said they would probably opt for Trump in 2020, while nine percent said they would probably not.

Much of that Trump fallout comes from independents, seeing as 45 percent said they will definitely not reelect Trump, per the UT/TT poll. Just 26 percent said they would definitely reelect him. Dissent is also strong among Democrats, with 85 percent saying they definitely won't vote for Trump. Meanwhile, 73 percent of Republicans say they definitely will reelect him.

Daron Shaw, professor of government at the University of Texas at Austin and co-director of the poll, was careful to point out that it didn't match up Trump with any "flesh-and-blood Democrat." But an April Emerson College poll and a June Quinnipiac University poll did just that, and they both showed former Vice President Joe Biden beating Trump. The Quinnipiac poll also put several other Democrats within a few points' striking distance of Trump.

UT surveyed 1,200 registered voters online from May 31 to June 9, with a margin of error of 2.83 percent. The Week Staff

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