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The 60/40 portfolio is overrated

“What if everything your investment adviser is telling you is wrong?” asked Brett Arends in SmartMoney.com. For decades, investors have been assured that a “balanced portfolio” of 60 percent stocks and 40 percent bonds, rebalanced annually, will make about 8 percent a year. Unfortunately, this advice is based “on a dubious reading of history, a misrepresentation of the facts, and a fair amount of sleight of hand.” The “ugly truth” is that, over the past 85 years, the 60/40 portfolio has gone through long periods when it did very badly for investors. Most of the gains came in the 1950s and over the past 30 years. But for other long stretches, “the returns were meager, or nonexistent,” especially after factoring for inflation. Money manager Charles de Vaulx says that’s why investors have to look beyond traditional stocks and bonds to investments like inflation-protected securities, gold, and commodities. In the end, the fund industry’s “simplistic solutions” come with no guarantees.

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