Debate about artificial intelligence, especially over the last couple of years, "usually goes one of two ways", said Vox: "AI is either the beginning of the end of human civilisation, or a shortcut to utopia".
The truth, as is so often the case with new technology, will probably lie somewhere in between.
Utopia? AI-powered assistants already promise a "workplace utopia, making employees more productive, improving workflows, and helping share knowledge across an organisation", said Fortune. And in his latest book, "Deep Utopia", Nick Bostrom, a philosopher at the University of Oxford, imagines AI technology progressing to the point at which it "can do all economically valuable work at near-zero cost", said The Economist.Â
Speaking at the Aspen Ideas Festival in June, Mustafa Suleyman, Microsoft AI's CEO, predicted a future where new scientific and cultural knowledge will be "widely open-sourced and available to everybody".
Or dystopia? In a widely read Op-Ed in Time magazine last year, AI pioneer Eliezer Yudkowsky warned that the most likely outcome of "building a superhumanly smart AI" is that "literally everyone on Earth will die".
AI sceptics such as Yudkowsky "envision a future in which amoral AI continues on its path of increasing intelligence to a tipping point beyond which their intelligence will be so far beyond us that we can't stop them from inadvertently destroying us", said Skeptic magazine.
And those in between? Most AI scientists believe the way forward is moderation – making "machines incrementally smarter and our lives gradually better". Technology historian and visionary Kevin Kelly compares this pathway for AI to the evolution of automobiles – we may not have flying cars, but vehicles have become faster, safer and more efficient over the past 50 years.
Who knows which of the two extreme scenarios is nearer the truth, said Vox, but "the polarised nature of the AI discourse is itself interesting".
In a period of rapid technological growth and political disruption "there are many reasons to worry about the course we're on" concluded Vox, and that at least is "something almost everyone can agree with". |