Emmanuel Macron is facing another crisis in his presidency after the head of his government, Prime Minister François Bayrou, called a vote of confidence that he now looks almost certain to lose. If the French government collapses for a second time in less than a year, Macron will be left with a handful of "unenviable choices", said Laurent Geslin on Euractiv.
What did the commentators say? Macron's longtime ally Bayrou, who oversees a centrist minority government, has called the confidence vote amid growing anger over his unpopular economic policies, including budget cuts and debt control measures.
If Bayrou's high-stakes bet doesn't pay off, the "consequences are stark" for Macron, said Geslin. Having "gambled once on dissolving parliament in June 2024", which ultimately "deepened divisions", he may now be left with "little choice but to roll the dice again". The president's avenues in the event of a loss are clear: "appoint another prime minister and gamble on securing a fragile majority, call yet another snap election or resign".
The right and left blocs, including Marine Le Pen's hard-right National Rally party, will want Macron "to dissolve parliament, and hold fresh elections", said The Economist, but he will likely take the opportunity to "appoint yet another" government "without returning to the ballot box".
Macron has "categorically denied he would ever consider an early exit", said Clea Caulcutt and Victor Goury-Laffont on Politico. Given that he is constitutionally unable to run again in 2027, Macron is more interested in trying to "protect his legacy", and that may leave him with "no choice" but to appoint a "third centrist or centre-leaning prime minister".
What next? "No one credible will want the job" of a prime minister left to "preside over austerity and strikes" so that Macron can "limp on in the Élysée" until his term ends, said James Tidmarsh in The Spectator.
A long-term and bigger concern is that French "fiscal credibility hangs by a thread". With this political turmoil on top of increasing debt and continued spending, a downgrade to the country's credit rating appears "inevitable" and risks "triggering a broader sell-off in European markets".
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