WeekDay AM: 10 Things you need to know this morning
Sunak in peril, religion in schools, and AI in train stations

 
today's politics story

Poll predicts Sunak will lose seat

What happened 
Rishi Sunak is set to become the first sitting prime minister ever to lose their seat at a general election with the Conservatives on track to slump to just 53 MPs, a major poll has predicted.

Who said what
About three-quarters of the Cabinet will be voted out while Labour will surge to 516 seats, giving Keir Starmer's party a House of Commons majority of 382 – double that won by Tony Blair in 1997 – the analysis by Savanta and Electoral Calculus for The Telegraph showed.

A separate poll by YouGov published in The Times today offered a slightly less disastrous forecast for the Conservative Party, suggesting it could win 108 seats on 4 July, with Labour taking 425 MPs. But this would still be the "biggest majority of any party in a century", The Times said.

If the Telegraph poll is correct the Tories "could be left battling the Lib Dems to avoid third place", said The Independent, with Ed Davey's party predicted to gain 50 MPs.

The projected result "lays bare the scale of voter disillusionment with the Conservatives", said The Telegraph, and "suggests an uncertain road for the party in the years ahead".

What next? 
The depth of Conservative losses matters, said The Times, because the "scale of the Tory rout would have a significant impact on any future leadership campaign".

Several presumed frontrunners to succeed Sunak including Penny Mordaunt, Grant Shapps and Robert Jenrick are all heading for defeat, both polls suggest. This could leave Kemi Badenoch, Tom Tugendhat, Suella Braverman and Priti Patel in position to begin the Conservative rebuilding project, all of whose seats remain Tory under YouGov's projection.

 
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today’s international story

Louisiana orders schools to display Ten Commandments

What happened
The US state of Louisiana has ordered that every public school classroom up to university level must display a poster of the Ten Commandments.

Who said what
"If you want to respect the rule of law you gotta start from the original law given, which was Moses … he got his commandments from God," said the state's Republican governor Jeff Landry, who signed the measure into law.

What next?
The law is likely to be challenged by civil rights groups arguing that "it contravenes the separation between church and state enshrined in the first amendment to the US Constitution", said the BBC.

Supporters of the law cite the 2022 Supreme Court decision in Kennedy v. Bremerton, which ruled a football coach's on-field prayers amounted to protected private speech, a decision that "lowered the bar between church and state", said CNN. Legal experts predict that decision is set to "allow more religious expression in public spaces".

 
 
Today’s environment story

Survey finds Chernobyl land is finally safe to farm

What happened
Large areas of contaminated farmland around the Chernobyl nuclear reactor may be safe to use for growing food, according to the most recent survey.

Away from the main exclusion zone the levels of radioactive isotopes released by the 1986 explosion have fallen below the threshold deemed unsafe by Ukrainian regulations.

Who said what
"More than 80% of (surveyed) territory can be returned to agricultural production," said Valery Kashparov at the National University of Life and Environmental Sciences of Ukraine.

Some parts of fields exceed the safety limit, said Jim Smith of the University of Portsmouth, but little radiation is transferred to crops, according to work done with Kashparov's team. Modelling suggested doses to farm workers would be "very, very low", Smith told New Scientist.

What next?
About 130,000 hectares could be used if further surveys find them safe and legal wrangles over ownership are resolved. But many oppose downgrading the status of the land to "uncontaminated", a move that would end compensation payments.

 
 

It's not all bad

Walking three times a week to ease back pain nearly halves the risk of recurrence, according to a study published in the Lancet. Researchers found that people who walked three to five times a week, averaging 130 minutes, stayed pain-free almost twice as long as those who did not walk. About 800 million people suffer from lower back pain worldwide and walking can have a "profound impact" on preventing flare-ups and improving quality of life, said study author Mark Hancock.

 
 
under the radar

How AI is used in UK train stations

Thousands of passengers passing through some of the UK's busiest train stations have been scanned with AI cameras that can predict their age, gender and even their emotions.

Newly released documents from Network Rail, obtained by civil liberties group Big Brother Watch, reveal how people travelling through London Euston, London Waterloo, Manchester Piccadilly, Leeds and other smaller stations have had their faces scanned by Amazon AI software over the past two years.

Object recognition is a type of machine learning that can identify items in video feeds. In the case of Network Rail, AI surveillance technology was used to analyse CCTV footage and alert staff to safety incidents, reduce fare dodging and make stations more efficient.

Transport for London (TfL) has also trialled cameras enabled with AI and the results are "startling", said James O'Malley in The House magazine, "revealing the potential, both good and bad".

One particularly ambitious recent trial at Willesden Green in northwest London used AI software tapped into the CCTV to help reduce fare evasion and alert staff to aggressive behaviour.

One of the most eye-catching sections of the Network Rail documents described how Amazon's Rekognition system, which allows face and object analysis, was deployed to "predict travellers' age, gender and potential emotions – with the suggestion that the data could be used in advertising systems in the future", said Wired.

AI-powered "smart stations" could make the passenger experience "safer, cleaner and more efficient", said O'Malley, but the use of image recognition calls for a delicate balance of "protecting rights with convenience and efficiency".

 
 
on this day

20 June 1975

The movie "Jaws" was released, going on to become the highest-grossing film of its time. Today that title is held by the 2009 blockbuster "Avatar", followed by "Avengers: Endgame". Neither was troubled by last year's big summer releases Barbie and Oppenheimer, which sit 14th and 54th in the rankings respectively.

 
 
Today’s newspapers

The Financial Times says Rishi Sunak has claimed credit after inflation hit the Bank of England target for first time in 3 years", but Labour still believes prices are "too high". The Telegraph says there could be a "Tory wipeout", as it splashes on its own opinion poll which predicts that Rishi Sunak could lose his seat. Meanwhile, the Daily Mail leads on Just Stop Oil activists spraying orange powder on Stonehenge and asks if anything is "sacred" to the "eco clowns". The Express also covers the protest. "Just lock them up," it suggests.

► See the newspaper front pages

 
 
tall tale

Monolith baffles police

A mysterious reflective silver monolith has appeared in the middle of a Nevada desert, leaving local authorities bewildered about how it got to the remote location. Las Vegas police are clueless and are hoping social media users will help crack the case.

 
 

Morning Report was written and edited by Arion McNicoll, Harriet Marsden, Julia O'Driscoll and Chas Newkey-Burden, with illustrations by Julia Wytrazek.

Image credits, from top: Thomas Trutschel / Photothek via Getty Images; Geography Photos / Universal Images Group via Getty Images; Viktor Drachev / AFP via Getty Images.