The massive Arctic island is vital to U.S. interests—whether or not President Trump buys it from Denmark.
Why does Trump want Greenland?
The president insists that U.S. ownership of the world’s largest island is “an absolute necessity” for national security, and has refused to rule out the use of military force to acquire the self-governing Danish territory. Defense experts disagree with Trump’s takeover threats—most advocate for closer ties with Greenland and NATO ally Denmark—but they agree that Greenland is strategically crucial to the U.S. Three times the size of Texas and home to just 57,000 people, the island is a buffer against Russia and China as the Arctic ice melts, opening new shipping routes between North America, Europe, and Asia. The U.S. has maintained a military presence in Greenland since World War II; the Pituffik Space Base some 750 miles north of the Arctic Circle today houses 200 personnel and a ballistic missile early-warning and defense system. But Trump argues the U.S. needs more control over Greenland to keep up with the great power race now playing out in the Arctic. “I’m talking about protecting the free world,” Trump said. “You have China ships all over the place. You have Russian ships all over the place.” Many foreign policy analysts agree that the U.S. needs to step up its involvement in the region. “We’ve sort of been asleep at the switch,” said Michael O’Hanlon of the Brookings Institution.
What are China and Russia doing?
In recent years, Russian President Vladimir Putin has reopened dozens of closed Soviet-era military bases in the far north; built four nuclear-powered icebreakers capable of smashing through 13-foot-thick ice (the U.S. has two icebreakers, both decades old); and carried out Arctic tests of hypersonic missiles designed to evade U.S. defenses and sensors. That matériel could help Russia assert its claims to a swath of disputed Arctic territory and turn the Northern Sea Route—a once-frozen passage along its own Arctic coast—into a new Suez Canal, through which Russian oil and gas could be quickly shipped to Asia. China has also invested in the Northern Sea Route, which would slash the time it takes to ship Chinese products to Europe, and in Greenland has tried unsuccessfully to buy mineral rights, airports, and an abandoned Danish naval base. Jahara Matisek, a professor at the U.S. Naval War College, said the U.S. believes China’s real interest in those Greenland projects was to install dual-use equipment that could help control its own military satellites and spy on nearby U.S. operations. “If China can disrupt our ‘Kill Chain’—our space-based assets, our satellites—then we will struggle to shoot things down,” said Matisek. “That’s why Greenland ends up actually mattering a lot.” Other experts believe China’s goal is more straightforward: to box the U.S. out of Greenland’s vast mineral riches.
What resources are there?
Greenland has significant reserves of rare earths, plus graphite, copper, nickel, cobalt, and lithium. Those minerals are critical to the production of green energy technologies such as wind turbines and electric-vehicle batteries, as well as artificial intelligence chips and cutting-edge military equipment. But China currently dominates the market for many of those raw materials —it controls about 70 percent of global rare-earth output—leaving the U.S. dangerously reliant on its superpower competitor. Greenland also has large deposits of uranium and up to 52 billion barrels of oil, worth about $4 trillion. America’s interest in the island “is about natural resources,” said Trump’s national security adviser Mike Waltz. It’s “all part of the ‘America First’ agenda.”
Can those riches be extracted easily?
No, which is why the island currently has only two active mines. Most of the critical minerals lie in the craggy hills along the coast, and any new mine will face high startup costs. The weather is hostile—temperatures in the north drop to an average of minus 4 degrees Fahrenheit in winter—and so is the terrain. While the Greenland Ice Sheet has shrunk by some 2,000 square miles over the past four decades, it still covers 80 percent of the island and is 2 miles thick at its deepest point. There are no roads between towns. And the iceberg-clogged waters make shipping dangerous. Outside workers will also likely need to be brought in, because of the small local population. “There has always been a lot of hype, a lot of talk of the potential” in Greenland, said Flemming Getreuer Christiansen, a Danish geoscience consultant. “Trump’s interest may wake up interest now, but the challenges remain the same.”
What do Greenlanders want?
Self-determination. A Danish colony for more than two centuries, Greenland secured home rule and established its own parliament in 1979. Much of the population, which is 90 percent native Inuit, is now eager for true independence. “Greenlanders are very tired of being treated like second-class citizens,” said Ulrik Pram Gad, a researcher at the Danish Institute for International Studies. Greenlandic Prime Minister Múte Egede announced this month that work on an independence framework has begun, and hinted that an independence referendum could be held in April. Independence would be expensive: Denmark spends about $1 billion a year on the island—about $17,500 per Greenlander—and covers half of its budget. Some residents argue that, once independent, Greenland could enter a free-association compact with America, under which the U.S. would provide economic support in exchange for access to its resources. Egede has expressed interest in greater cooperation with the U.S.—but nothing more. “We are not for sale and will never be for sale,” he said. “The future is ours and ours to shape.”
When Trump discovered Greenland
The president’s obsession with Greenland dates back to the early days of his first term, when cosmetics heir Ronald S. Lauder pitched him on the idea of a takeover and offered to serve as a back channel to the Danish government. Trump was so fixated on Greenland that it “absorbed the National Security Council staff for months,” according to New York Times reporter Peter Baker. NSC staffers talked with the Danish ambassador to the U.S. and developed a suite of options, “including a lease proposal akin to a New York real estate deal.” Eager to curb Chinese influence in the Arctic, Trump’s then–national security adviser John Bolton thought he could secure an increased U.S. presence in Greenland. But Trump kept demanding outright ownership, even suggesting the U.S. trade Puerto Rico for the island. The plan collapsed in 2019 after The Wall Street Journal reported on his aspirations, which Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen called “absurd.” Trump slammed Frederiksen as “nasty” and canceled a trip to Denmark. This time around, Frederiksen is trying a gentler approach, telling Trump simply that Greenland should decide its future.