Is Nikki Haley's GOP candidacy a game-changer?

Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina governor who served as former President Donald Trump's U.N. ambassador, announced Tuesday that she is running for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. Haley is the first member of the party to formally oppose Trump, who had been the only candidate in the field before Haley made it official. But she is likely to have to contend with a number of rivals, including former Vice President Mike Pence and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who looks like the most formidable challenger to Trump's dominance in early polls.

When the Charleston, S.C., Post and Courier reported two weeks ago that Haley would be launching her campaign in mid-February, Trump took the opportunity to remind Haley, and everybody else, that Haley said two years ago she wouldn't run if he did. "She said she would never run against me because I was the greatest president, but people change their opinions, and they change what's in their hearts," Trump told WIS-TV. "So I said, if your heart wants to do it, you have to go do it." What changes for the GOP with Haley joining the primary field?

Haley is staking an early claim to be the 'anti-Trump'

This is a "jump into the unknown for Haley" as Trump's first official challenger, said Max Greenwood and Julia Manchester in The Hill. "It's a role that few other Republicans are eager to fill, given Trump's penchant for trying to humiliate any of his political opponents, real or perceived." But Haley's record and background put her in "a unique lane in a potentially crowded GOP primary field that could help her cut through the noise, especially at a time when many Republicans are wavering on Trump's candidacy."

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There are plenty of Republicans who want a steady, policy-oriented voice in the primary field. And Haley offers experience and "generational change" after two of the oldest presidents America has ever had. And even if she doesn't win the nomination, she could enhance the GOP ticket. Some Republicans have "floated Haley as a potential running mate for the eventual nominee, suggesting that her coming presidential bid could be a way for her to raise her profile."

Haley adds a lot to the field, but she's a longshot

There is no question that Haley will have the GOP's attention, said Jonathan Bernstein in Bloomberg. Haley is one of just a few women who have run for the GOP presidential nomination. Her candidacy is a "significant landmark in terms of normalizing women as presidential candidates on a bipartisan basis." She's only the second woman with conventional political experience to go for the GOP nomination, after Sen. Margaret Chase Smith of Maine, who entered a few primaries in 1964. Plus, "as the child of Indian immigrants, Haley also contributes to the history of ethnic diversity among Republican candidates.

Still, "when it comes to party support, Haley is not off to a good start." The governor and senior senator in her home state "already support Trump." And South Carolina's junior senator, Tim Scott, "is a potential candidate himself." Haley has her work cut out for her to become the most popular Republican presidential hopeful in her own state, which doesn't bode well for her odds nationwide.

Haley threw away her chance to be a great anti-Trump candidate

Haley, a former Trump critic, once had "everything the party thought it needed to win," said former GOP political consultant Stuart Stevens in The New York Times. She appealed to immigrants, young people, and people of color as much or more than any other Republican leader. She once "eviscerated Trump as a racist," saying someone who refused to disavow the K.K.K. wasn't fit to lead the GOP. She was "perfectly positioned" to run as the party's 2024 savior. "Then she threw it all away" by jumping on Trump's bandwagon and "embracing her inner MAGA." Nobody "better illustrates the tragic collapse of the modern Republican Party than Nikki Haley."

And the time to win over the party faithful might have passed. In a recent Morning Consult poll, she had 3 percent support, one point ahead of Liz Cheney. "The female star of the current Republican Party isn't the daughter of immigrants" who once showed the courage to lead toward a new future by "taking down the Confederate flag" at the South Carolina statehouse. The new star is "Marjorie Taylor Greene, who sells 'Proud Christian Nationalist' T-shirts while becoming arguably the second-most powerful member of the House in little more than one two-year term."

She could be the anti-Trump candidate who saves Trump

Haley has a slim chance of winning, but she could be a spoiler in the primaries, said Martin Pengelly in The Guardian. Trump has his hands full right now, with polls showing Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis posing a real threat, assuming he jumps into the ring. But a new Yahoo News/YouGov poll suggests that she could change the race just "enough to split the vote and keep Donald Trump ahead of Ron DeSantis, his only current close rival."

In a head-to-head race, Desantis leads Trump 45 percent to 41 percent in the poll. In a hypothetical three-way matchup, Haley would win 11 percent of Republican and Republican-leaning voters. Almost all of her votes would come from DeSantis, dropping him behind Trump, 35 percent to 38 percent. Sarah Longwell, publisher of The Bulwark, an anti-Trump conservative website, wrote recently that the Trump challengers need to "coalesce around a frontrunner by February 2024 to avoid the same scenario that gave us Trump in 2016."