According to the most recent polls of Iowa, Donald Trump narrowly leads Sen. Ted Cruz (Texas) in the first-in-the-nation vote for the Republican presidential nomination. But who actually wins the caucuses will be determined by how many voters show up, and how conservative and/or religious they are. Trump is leading among first-time likely GOP caucus-voters, with 39 percent, according to a recent Wall Street Journal/NBC News/Marist poll, and if those new, generally more moderate Trump voters turn out, it's good news for the billionaire real estate mogul. "The bigger the turnout, the better it is for Trump," said Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad (R).
It's not just numbers, though. If the 2012 GOP Iowa caucus electorate shows up — nearly half of whom identified as "very conservative" — it should be a close race between Trump and Cruz. The Wall Street Journal predicts a much more moderate group, which bodes well for Trump.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
-
The slow fight for same-sex marriage in AsiaUnder the Radar Thailand joins Nepal and Taiwan as the only Asian nations to legalise LGBT unions, amid repressive regimes and religious traditions
-
Today's political cartoons - January 26, 2025Cartoons Sunday's cartoons - stick 'em up, dye hard, and more
-
5 richly funny cartoons about American oligarchyArtists take on playing the game, pledging allegiance, and more
-
Trump orders release of JFK, RFK, MLK Jr. filesSpeed Read The president signed an executive order to release classified documents related to the assassinations of John F. Kennedy, Robert F. Kennedy and Martin Luther King Jr.
-
Judge pauses Trump's birthright citizenship banSpeed Read A federal judge in Seattle temporarily blocked President Donald Trump's 'unconstitutional' executive order to overturn birthright citizenship
-
DOJ threatens local officials on migrant crackdownSpeed Read Federal prosecutors have been told to investigate any official who obstructs Trump's deportation efforts
-
Senate learns new Hegseth abuse, drinking allegationsspeed read The former sister-in-law of Donald Trump's defense secretary nominee, Pete Hegseth, claims he was abusive
-
Trump pardons Silk Road founder, defends Jan. 6 actsSpeed Read President Donald Trump made good with libertarians and crypto enthusiasts in pardoning Ross Ulbricht
-
Trump starts term with spate of executive ordersSpeed Read The president is rolling back many of Joe Biden's climate and immigration policies
-
Trump pardons or commutes all charged Jan. 6 riotersSpeed Read The new president pardoned roughly 1,500 criminal defendants charged with crimes related to the Capitol riot
-
Will Trump's 'madman' strategy pay off?Today's Big Question Incoming US president likes to seem unpredictable but, this time round, world leaders could be wise to his playbook
