According to the most recent polls of Iowa, Donald Trump narrowly leads Sen. Ted Cruz (Texas) in the first-in-the-nation vote for the Republican presidential nomination. But who actually wins the caucuses will be determined by how many voters show up, and how conservative and/or religious they are. Trump is leading among first-time likely GOP caucus-voters, with 39 percent, according to a recent Wall Street Journal/NBC News/Marist poll, and if those new, generally more moderate Trump voters turn out, it's good news for the billionaire real estate mogul. "The bigger the turnout, the better it is for Trump," said Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad (R).
It's not just numbers, though. If the 2012 GOP Iowa caucus electorate shows up — nearly half of whom identified as "very conservative" — it should be a close race between Trump and Cruz. The Wall Street Journal predicts a much more moderate group, which bodes well for Trump.
On the Democratic side, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), like Trump, outperforms with first-time caucus-goers, so Sanders predicts that a large turnout on the Democratic side will propel him to victory over Hillary Clinton. A record 240,000 Iowa Democrats turned out in 2008, helping Barack Obama beat Clinton, but Clinton leads Sanders by three percentage points in the most recent Iowa polls.
The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
-
The 5 best political thriller series of the 21st centuryThe Week Recommends Viewers can binge on most anything, including espionage and the formation of parliamentary coalitions
-
Sudan stands on the brink of another national schismThe Explainer With tens of thousands dead and millions displaced, one of Africa’s most severe outbreaks of sectarian violence is poised to take a dramatic turn for the worse
-
‘Not every social scourge is an act of war’Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
-
Senate votes to kill Trump’s Brazil tariffSpeed Read Five Senate Republicans joined the Democrats in rebuking Trump’s import tax
-
Border Patrol gets scrutiny in court, gains power in ICESpeed Read Half of the new ICE directors are reportedly from DHS’s more aggressive Customs and Border Protection branch
-
Shutdown stalemate nears key pain pointsSpeed Read A federal employee union called for the Democrats to to stand down four weeks into the government standoff
-
Trump vows new tariffs on Canada over Reagan adspeed read The ad that offended the president has Ronald Reagan explaining why import taxes hurt the economy
-
NY attorney general asks public for ICE raid footageSpeed Read Rep. Dan Goldman claims ICE wrongly detained four US citizens in the Canal Street raid and held them for a whole day without charges
-
Trump’s huge ballroom to replace razed East WingSpeed Read The White House’s east wing is being torn down amid ballroom construction
-
Trump expands boat strikes to Pacific, killing 5 moreSpeed Read The US military destroyed two more alleged drug smuggling boats in international waters
-
Trump demands millions from his administrationSpeed Read The president has requested $230 million in compensation from the Justice Department for previous federal investigations
