Will Ted Cruz or Donald Trump win the Iowa caucuses? It depends on who shows up.


According to the most recent polls of Iowa, Donald Trump narrowly leads Sen. Ted Cruz (Texas) in the first-in-the-nation vote for the Republican presidential nomination. But who actually wins the caucuses will be determined by how many voters show up, and how conservative and/or religious they are. Trump is leading among first-time likely GOP caucus-voters, with 39 percent, according to a recent Wall Street Journal/NBC News/Marist poll, and if those new, generally more moderate Trump voters turn out, it's good news for the billionaire real estate mogul. "The bigger the turnout, the better it is for Trump," said Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad (R).
It's not just numbers, though. If the 2012 GOP Iowa caucus electorate shows up — nearly half of whom identified as "very conservative" — it should be a close race between Trump and Cruz. The Wall Street Journal predicts a much more moderate group, which bodes well for Trump.
On the Democratic side, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), like Trump, outperforms with first-time caucus-goers, so Sanders predicts that a large turnout on the Democratic side will propel him to victory over Hillary Clinton. A record 240,000 Iowa Democrats turned out in 2008, helping Barack Obama beat Clinton, but Clinton leads Sanders by three percentage points in the most recent Iowa polls.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Peter has worked as a news and culture writer and editor at The Week since the site's launch in 2008. He covers politics, world affairs, religion and cultural currents. His journalism career began as a copy editor at a financial newswire and has included editorial positions at The New York Times Magazine, Facts on File, and Oregon State University.
-
Film reviews: The Phoenician Scheme, Bring Her Back, and Jane Austen Wrecked My Life
Feature A despised mogul seeks a fresh triumph, orphaned siblings land with a nightmare foster mother, and a Jane fan finds herself in a love triangle
-
Music reviews: Tune-Yards and PinkPantheress
Feature "Better Dreaming" and "Fancy That"
-
Withdrawing 529 plan funds for college? Here's what to know.
the explainer Maximize the amount you have stashed away for your education
-
Elon Musk slams Trump's 'pork-filled' signature bill
speed read 'Shame on those who voted for it: you know you did wrong,' Musk posted on X
-
Depleted FEMA struggling as hurricane season begins
speed read FEMA has lost a third of its workforce amid DOGE cuts enforced by President Donald Trump
-
White House tackles fake citations in MAHA report
speed read A federal government public health report spearheaded by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was rife with false citations
-
Judge blocks push to bar Harvard foreign students
speed read Judge Allison Burroughs sided with Harvard against the Trump administration's attempt to block the admittance of international students
-
Trump's trade war whipsawed by court rulings
Speed Read A series of court rulings over Trump's tariffs renders the future of US trade policy uncertain
-
Elon Musk departs Trump administration
speed read The former DOGE head says he is ending his government work to spend more time on his companies
-
Trump taps ex-personal lawyer for appeals court
speed read The president has nominated Emil Bove, his former criminal defense lawyer, to be a federal judge
-
US trade court nullifies Trump's biggest tariffs
speed read The US Court of International Trade says Trump exceeded his authority in imposing global tariffs