Will Ted Cruz or Donald Trump win the Iowa caucuses? It depends on who shows up.
According to the most recent polls of Iowa, Donald Trump narrowly leads Sen. Ted Cruz (Texas) in the first-in-the-nation vote for the Republican presidential nomination. But who actually wins the caucuses will be determined by how many voters show up, and how conservative and/or religious they are. Trump is leading among first-time likely GOP caucus-voters, with 39 percent, according to a recent Wall Street Journal/NBC News/Marist poll, and if those new, generally more moderate Trump voters turn out, it's good news for the billionaire real estate mogul. "The bigger the turnout, the better it is for Trump," said Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad (R).
It's not just numbers, though. If the 2012 GOP Iowa caucus electorate shows up — nearly half of whom identified as "very conservative" — it should be a close race between Trump and Cruz. The Wall Street Journal predicts a much more moderate group, which bodes well for Trump.
On the Democratic side, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), like Trump, outperforms with first-time caucus-goers, so Sanders predicts that a large turnout on the Democratic side will propel him to victory over Hillary Clinton. A record 240,000 Iowa Democrats turned out in 2008, helping Barack Obama beat Clinton, but Clinton leads Sanders by three percentage points in the most recent Iowa polls.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Create an account with the same email registered to your subscription to unlock access.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Peter has worked as a news and culture writer and editor at The Week since the site's launch in 2008. He covers politics, world affairs, religion and cultural currents. His journalism career began as a copy editor at a financial newswire and has included editorial positions at The New York Times Magazine, Facts on File, and Oregon State University.
-
Humza Yousaf clears the decks to battle no-confidence vote
Speed Read First minister is 'done', according to insider, but a single vote could change the balance
By Arion McNicoll, The Week UK Published
-
Immunotherapy and hay fever
The Explainer Research shows that the treatment could provide significant relief from symptoms for many hay fever sufferers
By Richard Windsor, The Week UK Published
-
The week's best photos
In Pictures A flooded island, a ballistic missile, and more
By Anahi Valenzuela, The Week US Published
-
Ukraine cheers House approval of military aid
Speed Read Following a lengthy struggle, the House has approved $95 billion in aid for Ukraine and Israel
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Poland, Germany nab alleged anti-Ukraine spies
Speed Read A man was arrested over a supposed Russian plot to kill Ukrainian President Zelenskyy
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Israel hits Iran with retaliatory airstrike
Speed Read The attack comes after Iran's drone and missile barrage last weekend
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Peter Murrell: Sturgeon's husband charged over SNP 'embezzlement' claims
Speed Read SNP expresses 'shock' as former chief executive rearrested in long-running investigation into claims of mishandled campaign funds
By Arion McNicoll, The Week UK Published
-
Mark Menzies: Tories investigate MP after 'bad people' cash claims
Speed Read Fylde MP will sit as an independent while party looks into allegations he misused campaign funds on medical expenses and blackmail pay-out
By Arion McNicoll, The Week UK Published
-
Why Johnson won't just pass Ukraine aid
Speed Read The House Speaker could have sent $60 billion in military aid to Ukraine — but it would have split his caucus
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Sudan on brink of collapse after a year of war
Speed Read 18 million people face famine as the country continues its bloody downward spiral
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Trump's first criminal trial starts with jury picks
Speed Read The former president faces charges related to hush money payments made to adult film star Stormy Daniels
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published