"What I worry about every single day is that a miscalculation or an accident… hits a bus full of children, or hits another kind of civilian target, that could force the political system in either country to retaliate in a way that slides us into war."
US envoy Amos Hochstein's grim prediction from May, as told to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, could be about to come true. Israel is preparing to retaliate against Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, which it blames for a rocket attack on the occupied Golan Heights that killed 12 Israeli children over the weekend.
What did the commentators say? Full-scale conflict is still "unlikely due to structural factors", said Foreign Policy, including the "desire by both to avoid a destructive regional war, and Washington's uncertain security support for Israel in such a military conflict".
But with Hezbollah – "Iran's strongest proxy", which is estimated to have at least 150,000 missiles and rockets pointing south – the "fear is of a war that would devastate Lebanon, and do serious damage to Israel", said CNN.
As Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told CNN: "It has the potential to create a situation that we have never seen in this region: a major regional war, which could draw in the Gulf." He warned this could also lead to direct confrontation between the United States and Iran.
What next? "As the temperature rises in the region, so do concerns," said Politico. Turkey's President Recep Tayyip ErdoÄŸan threatened on Sunday to send troops into Israel to intervene on behalf of Palestinians.
With his popularity at home plummeting, Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is doing "all he can for his political survival", said the BBC's Mark Lowen. Both sides, though, are hesitant. Hezbollah "remains committed to halting hostilities if Israel strikes a cease-fire agreement with Hamas in Gaza", said Foreign Affairs, and "Israel would likely prefer a diplomatic resolution to the tensions on its northern border".
But what each side wants and what it will get could be two very different outcomes. As Hochstein warned: "Wars have started historically around the world even when leaders didn't want them, because they had no choice."
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