More than 1,000 people have been detained following mass protests in Turkey over the jailing of opposition leader Ekrem İmamoğlu. The popular mayor of Istanbul had emerged as the most likely candidate to end President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's two-decades-long rule before he was arrested last week, along with other opposition figures, and charged with corruption.
What did the commentators say? Erdoğan has long been "removing checks on his own power and manipulating state institutions to give his party electoral advantages", said Foreign Affairs. But with this "brazen act of political suppression, the Turkish government has taken a momentous step towards full-fledged autocracy".
This is a "decisive moment", said Soner Çağaptay, of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. By sanctioning İmamoğlu's arrest, said Foreign Affairs, Erdoğan has "crossed the line that separates Turkey's competitive authoritarian system from a full, Russian-style autocracy in which the president handpicks his opponents and elections are purely for show".
Turkey is "nearing a point of no return", said The Economist. Although Erdoğan wields "unchecked executive powers and de facto control over the courts and most of the media", Turkey's elections had "remained mostly free". But he has "taken a big risk by wagering that the benefit of removing a top rival is worth the cost of gutting Turkey's democracy".
What next? Although some countries have condemned his government, Erdoğan is unlikely to face major international pressure given the precarious state of world affairs. He is "well placed to act with impunity, knowing that his strategic importance will likely shield him from serious repercussions", said international affairs expert Massimo D'Angelo on The Conversation.
Any attempt to force the president to change course will almost certainly have to come from inside Turkey. Despite his arrest, İmamoğlu was confirmed over the weekend as the Republican People's Party's presidential nominee for the election scheduled for 2028. Under the Turkish constitution, Erdoğan is barred from running again, although he could get around this by calling an early vote.
The president is playing a "high-risk, high-reward game", said Foreign Affairs. "If he succeeds, he'll head into the next election against an opponent he chose himself, effectively securing his rule for life."
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