As Donald Trump keeps the world waiting, experts believe a US attack on Iran could pull Washington into a conflict even more perilous and lengthy than the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Destroying Iran's nuclear capability requires "the kind of air attack that only the US air force can execute", said The New York Times. But US involvement could push Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, to double down and start producing – and possibly even use – nuclear bombs.
What did the commentators say? Escalation could happen quickly. "Any attack by the US will lead to a full-scale attack by the Iranians against US bases in the region," Trita Parsi, from the Quincy Institute foreign policy think tank in Washington, told CNN. And if Americans are killed, or even injured, the US president will be under pressure to exact revenge.
"Soon enough, the only targets left for Washington to hit would be the Iranian regime's leaders, and the US would again go into the regime-change business," said former National Security Council member Steven N. Simon and Daniel C. Kurtzer, a former US ambassador to Israel, in Foreign Affairs magazine.
Unable to defeat Israel and the US through outright firepower, Iran would rely on cyberwarfare, drones and short-range missile attacks on oil tankers by what remains of its proxies across Iraq, Yemen and Syria, said Parsi. Tehran could also try to shut down trade and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandab Strait, both global maritime chokepoints. The strategy would likely be to "strike back as much as they can, and hope that Trump eventually tries to cut the war short".
What next? At this week's G7 summit in Canada, France's President Emmanuel Macron cautioned against "regime change with no plan" and pointed to Iraq in 2003 and the overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi in Libya in 2011 as cautionary examples.
If Iran's supreme leader were to be toppled, the country – made up of a mixture of ethnicities, religions, politics and incomes – could end up divided in a sort of Balkanisation, said The Guardian. "Even now, as the regime totters, the uncertainty about what may come next may be its best chance of survival."
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