As the new year begins, we could be one step closer to peak population. According to the UN's latest projections, the global population is expected to peak at about 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s, earlier than previously predicted. It is then expected to plateau at about 10.2 billion by 2100.
Experts say lower birth rates and falling fertility levels – especially in "ultra-low" fertility countries like China, Italy and Spain – are to blame for the more imminent peak.
Fertility rates are falling worldwide and governments' pronatalist policies have "almost totally failed to alter that fact", said Vox. As a consequence, UN predictions might miss by a fair amount, but "the changes are generally baked in".
The overall population, before it peaks, will continue to get older. And because of a pandemic-induced dip in global life expectancy, "that's in part a success story". The end result, though, is "global greying", with more elderly people than children by the 2070s.
The population will eventually peak, but "one after another the projections keep missing", said John Burn-Murdoch in the Financial Times. Forecasts from the UN and others tend to underestimate how quickly birth rates are falling and often do not account for minor fluctuations in global trends.
Predicting the global population’s trajectory is no easy task and "even tiny perturbations today can compound into yawning gulfs". Some experts believe we will see a peak as soon as 2054, 30 years ahead of schedule, with a global population of about nine billion.
Maybe the next round of projections "should come with a health warning". "These estimates are extremely fuzzy and based on frameworks that were true in the past, but may not be today. Use them with caution, and probably err on the low side." |