Did you hear that the world is ending on Friday? That’s according to three 1960s physicists.
“Our great-great-grandchildren will not starve,” they said in an article in the journal Science published on 4 November 1960. “They will be squeezed to death.”
The Austrian-American physicist Heinz von Foerster and two of his colleagues wrote the paper that had the sobering title “Doomsday: Friday, 13 November, AD 2026”.
“The work was based on a simple observation,” said Science last month. It was that “the time it took for the human population to double in size kept getting shorter”. So, drawing on population estimates from about 400BC until 1958, the authors “came up with an equation that best described the trend”.
By 2020, they predicted, the human population would exceed 25 billion. The claims caused an “immediate stir”, said Alan MacEachern, a history professor from Western University in Ontario, Canada, on The Conversation. Many commentators thought the article was “strictly a tongue-in-cheek comment on population fears”.
Demographers “pointed out obvious flaws”, according to Science. Nevertheless, the article was “regularly cited” and its predictions continued to appear “remarkably accurate”. That was the case until about 1993, “halfway to the ‘doomsday’, when the global population began falling behind its forecasts”, added MacEachern.
Now the global birth rate is “slightly less than half what it was in 1960”, so “hopefully, we will all wake up on November 13 to an ordinary day”.
|