Rapid advances in drone technology are upending how wars are fought. Is the U.S. military ready?
How are drones changing warfare?
Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) have been used by militaries for decades, with the U.S. leaning heavily on multimillion-dollar systems like the Predator and Reaper in the war on terror. But those SUV-size drones are increasingly being replaced by smaller quadcopter and winged drones that can cost as little as a few hundred dollars and can be deployed to track enemy movements, supply frontline troops, and deliver deadly payloads, either by dropping explosives or smashing into targets kamikaze-style. Ukraine, which has used drones to fight Russia’s larger, more powerful military to a deadlock, has become a closely studied laboratory for drone warfare. Instead of a front line where troops mass, there’s a ghostly 20-mile “kill zone” where remotely piloted surveillance and attack drones buzz in the sky night and day, and small clutches of soldiers hunker in foxholes. Of the tens of thousands of casualties Russia suffers each month, up to 90% are inflicted by drones. Russia, meanwhile, is using Iranian-designed Shahed drones fitted with turbojets to target residential buildings, shopping malls, gas stations, and power plants across Ukraine. “It’s like [the advent of] gunpowder,” former U.S. Army officer Patrick Shepherd said of the impact of cheap drones on warfare. The U.S. is witnessing that transformative effect firsthand in the war with Iran.
What’s happening in that conflict?
Iran’s long-range, highly accurate Shahed-136 attack drones—flying fiberglass triangles that cost about $35,000 each—have helped Tehran hold off the world’s most powerful military. Iranian drones have hit U.S. bases, logistics hubs, and radar stations across the Middle East; an April strike on a base in Kuwait killed six U.S. service members. They’ve damaged energy infrastructure in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, and allowed Iran to secure partial control over the Strait of Hormuz. While most drones are shot down, successive waves of attacks have badly depleted U.S. stocks of Patriot and THAAD air-defense interceptors, which cost between $4 million and $12 million a shot. “You do not need to be a defense planner to understand that cost curve is in the wrong direction,” said Michael Horowitz, a military technology expert at the University of Pennsylvania. And the frenetic pace of drone innovation is making it steadily harder to develop effective and affordable countermeasures.
How is the technology advancing?
Ukraine’s hundreds of domestic drone manufacturers have built long-range drones that have hit oil refineries up to 1,000 miles inside Russia, and ground drones resembling small tractors that can clear mines, ferry supplies, rescue wounded soldiers, and attack enemy positions with onboard machine guns. “It’s a hunk of iron sent to do the job we used to send soldiers to do,” one commander told Reuters. Ukraine has also deployed Jet Ski–size marine drones that have shot down Russian fighter jets and sunk or damaged at least 19 warships, effectively neutralizing Russia’s Black Sea fleet. Moscow is hard at work as well: One game-changing Russian innovation was the development of drones operated via mileslong, ultra-thin fiber-optic cables, which can’t be disrupted by radio-frequency jamming.
What innovations are coming?
Unmanned vessels and vehicles that can work in coordination. In an unprecedented July operation, a Ukrainian sea drone delivered a ground drone that then fired on Russian positions. In the works are “nano drones” the size of insects, which could be fitted with small explosive charges. But the biggest shift will be toward AI-guided weapons that autonomously hunt targets and execute missions without a human in the loop. Russia took a step toward that future in August, when three Ukrainian civilians outside a gas station in Zaporizhzhia were killed by a drone believed to have been fully guided by AI. Experts say we’ll soon see AI-guided drone swarms that can autonomously execute complex operations. “In a few years,” said Col. Serhiy Minaiev, a Ukrainian commander, “we will be living in a Terminator movie.”
Is the U.S. prepared for that future?
Lt. Gen. Charles Costanza, a top commander in Europe until his abrupt removal in August, said last year that the U.S. is “behind” on drones. “We aren’t moving fast enough.” Retired military leaders including former Joint Chiefs chair Mark Milley and former CIA chief David Petraeus have echoed that view. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has taken steps to up the military’s game. He announced a Drone Dominance program last year, committing $1 billion to purchasing 200,000 drones by 2027, and in a July memo vowed to boost domestic drone production and integrate unmanned systems “into all relevant combat training.” But we’re playing catch-up: Russia is producing more than 6 million drones a year, and China is believed to be churning out an even higher number. And recent actions by Hegseth have raised worries about U.S. preparedness.
What has Hegseth done?
This year he pushed out two highly respected generals, Army chief of staff Randy George and Gen. Chris Donahue, the top Army commander in Europe, who were leading efforts to modernize the Army. Gen. Christopher La Neve, a Hegseth loyalist who replaced George in an acting capacity, last month disbanded a 600-person drone battalion that had been championed by George and Donahue and was meant to apply lessons learned from Ukraine. August also saw the resignation of Army Secretary Dan Driscoll, who reportedly warned President Trump on his way out that Hegseth was damaging “Army transformation.” To disband the drone unit in a time of dizzying change is “deeply regrettable and dangerous,” said Michael O’Hanlon, a defense expert at the Brookings Institution. But Hegseth has a different view, an Army spokesman told The Wall Street Journal. The drone unit, the official said, needed to go back to basics and “refocus on its core warfighting tasks.”
