Is the momentum for gay marriage real, or just media hype?

Some time in the next week, either on Thursday or Monday, the Supreme Court is expected to hand down two big rulings on same-sex marriage. Around the time the high-court justices were hearing the high-profile cases in March, the media was dedicating a lot of ink and pixels to the subject — and the coverage wasn't evenly divided between supporters and opponents of gay marriage, according to a new study from Pew.

In fact, it wasn't even close, say Paul Hitlin, Amy Mitchell, and Mark Jurkowitz at Pew's Project for Excellence in Journalism. In nearly 500 articles and TV segments from March 18 to May 12, "stories with more statements supporting same-sex marriage outweighed those with more statements opposing it by a margin of roughly 5-to-1."

In the news media, supportive stories — where pro–gay marriage views outnumbered opposition by at least a 2-to-1 margin — made up 47 percent of coverage, versus 9 percent favoring anti–gay marriage views, Pew found. The Huffington Post — which, to be fair, has a dedicated "Gay Voices" section — had the most, and most tilted, coverage (62 percent pro, 9 percent anti) of a mainstream news source, Pew says, while The Wall Street Journal and USA Today "stood out for higher levels of mixed or neutral reporting, 70 percent and 67 percent, respectively, and more even ratio of supporting versus opposing stories."

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The breakdown by media category falls along somewhat predictable lines: Conservative talk radio tilted toward gay-marriage opposition, while liberal talk radio was 100 percent in support, for example. But there are a few surprises, too — like that NPR had almost twice as many opposing voices as Fox News. All in all, though, Pew says, "the news media coverage provided a strong sense of momentum towards legalizing same-sex marriage."

That outcome can be explained by some logical reasons, says Brian Stelter in The New York Times. As the researchers note, many of the developments that prompted the news articles were intrinsically positive for gay-rights proponents, including politicians coming out in favor of gay marriage or states legalizing it. Still, Stelter says, "the study lends credence to conservative charges that the nation's news media have championed the issue of same-sex marriage at the expense of objectivity."

No kidding, says Rich Lizardo at The American Spectator. "The report might as well have been titled 'The Sky Is Blue' because this only confirms what everyone already knew." The only surprise, in fact, is that "news outlets such as The Huffington Post (explicitly cited in the study) and The New York Times are covering this story."

Yes, says Taylor Colwell at Townhall, "this study confirms what most of us already suspected: That the surge in public support for gay marriage has been a phenomenon largely driven by the media." When it comes to unpacking media bias, "the perpetual question is whether the media is a molder or reflector of public attitudes." But in this case, the answer seems pretty clear, Colwell says.

Looking at the numbers, "it's easy to simply assume that the media is pushing an agenda rather than reporting the facts," says Chris Cillizza at The Washington Post. But that's an overly simple way to look at the study. First of all, there was a whole lot of neutral or balanced coverage, and the pro–gay marriage tilt to the rest of the stories is partly explained by the better organization and more compelling argument (fight for civil rights) on the gay-rights side, Cillizza says. Also, "there is a bit of chicken and egg going on here."