Massachusetts miracle for the GOP?

A new poll shows a surprisingly close race to succeed Ted Kennedy, with the fate of health care reform hanging in the balance

Democrats have held Ted Kennedy's former Senate seat since 1952. But with a special election to replace Kennedy scheduled for January 19, a new Rasmussen poll showing GOP candidate Scott Brown only 9 points behind Democrat Martha Coakley has some observers wondering if Republicans are poised to pull off a major upset. The stakes are even higher than usual: If Brown wins, he would kill the Democrats' filibuster-proof majority in the Senate, potentially derailing Obama's health reform bill. Is this just another GOP-friendly Rasmussen poll, or should Democrats be legitimately worried about losing Kennedy's seat? (Watch the Massachusetts senatorial candidates appear on a local radio program)

Brown could pull off a big upset: The race to replace Ted Kennedy is definitely a "possible shocker," says William Jacobson in Legal Insurrection. By all rights, the Democrats should have a double-digit lead, but their "tactic of acting like the election already is over may be backfiring." The enthusiasm and momentum are all on the Republicans' side, and that bodes well for them, given that special elections like this often break in favor of the party that does a better job turning out voters.

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