Congress

Republicans can breathe a little easier, said Dan Balz and Jonathan Weisman in The Washington Post. For months they've worried that 'œnearly relentless bad omens,' ranging from corruption scandals to President Bush's plummeting poll ratings, would spell disaster for them in the fall midterm elections. But if last week's special election in California is any indication, the future no longer looks so ominous. In a conservative district north of San Diego, voters elected GOP candidate Brian Bilbray to fill his fellow Republican Randy 'œDuke' Cunningham's old seat. Cunningham was recently jailed on corruption charges; by all rights, Democratic challenger Francine Busby should have been able to seize on constituents' anger and ride this scandal to victory. But she couldn't. 'œRepublicans should stop moping,' said John Dickerson in Slate.com. Their worst nightmare—that Democrats might win more than 15 additional seats in November and regain control of the House—suddenly seems less likely.

Don't be so sure, said Adam Nagourney in The New York Times. The Republican National Committee went to extraordinary lengths to get Bilbray elected, spending $5 million on the race, flying in 100 Capitol Hill staffers, and making 164,000 phone calls to voters. Busby, meanwhile, alienated a lot of independents when she got caught telling a largely Spanish-speaking group, 'œYou don't need papers for voting.' Yet despite all this, Bilbray won by only 49 percent to Busby's 45 percent in a strongly Republican district. If the GOP could barely eke out a win on 'œfriendly ground,' imagine what could happen with the 30 or so seats considered up for grabs in the fall.

That doesn't mean Democrats should start measuring the House Speaker's office for new drapes, said Ronald Brownstein in the Los Angeles Times. In this deeply polarized era, many voters so strongly identify with the Republicans or Democrats that they will not vote for candidates of the other party—regardless of who's running. In the California special election, 'œthe evidence indicates that virtually all Republicans stuck with Bilbray,' even though these voters are grouchy with the party's performance on immigration, Iraq, and other issues. Democratic and independent turnout, meanwhile, was disappointing, suggesting that voters are more weary and cynical than fired up. This all suggests that any change in the balance of power will be incremental, with Democrats winning some Republican seats in November—but not enough to take control. The GOP may have had a bad year, but Democrats simply aren't positioned 'œto squeeze the maximum benefit from that vulnerability.'

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