Iraq has reached a turning point, said Larry Diamond in the San Jose Mercury News. 'œIf you feel that you have heard this before, you have.' You heard it in January, when the Iraqis elected a transitional government, and in October, when they ratified a new constitution. Now, with this week's election of a parliament, and the formation of a permanent government, the White House is again trumpeting that democracy has taken hold in Iraq. But true peace and stability will only come with the end of the insurgency, and that can only be achieved by 'œface-to-face' negotiations with the Sunni rebels and Iraqi nationalists who make up the majority of the insurgents. With good reason, they fear they'll be shunted aside in the new Iraq, with the religious Shiites and the Kurds divvying up power. Addressing the rebels' objections directly, in talks supervised by the U.N., could 'œtransform the way the Sunnis look at the new political order,' vastly increasing the chances that Iraq can succeed as a nation.
If that dream is to be achieved, said Frederick Kagan in The Weekly Standard, the U.S. must stop this talk of withdrawing our troops. The Sunnis believe that ruling Iraq is 'œtheir birthright,' and will resign themselves to the democratic process only when they're sure that the rebellion will fail. The U.S. can defeat the insurgents by cleaning out their strongholds, one by one, and turning these areas over to Iraqi security forces. But this painstaking process will take time. 'œNow is not the time to set timetables or make promises about withdrawing forces to please domestic constituencies.'
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