The agony of Sudan

What is happening in Sudan?

The Islamic Arab government of Lt. Gen. Omar el-Bashir is simultaneously trying to suppress two rebellions. One civil war, against black African rebels in the south, has been dragging on for 20 years; 2 million people have died in that conflict. In 2003, black Africans in the western region of Darfur also rose up against the government in Khartoum, the nation’s capital. El-Bashir responded with a systematic campaign of ethnic cleansing. Sudan’s air force has repeatedly bombed the villages of Darfur, dropping crude bombs onto the straw-roofed huts. Then the Janjaweed—Arab militias mounted on camels and horses, armed with AK-47s and whips—sweep in to murder the men, rape the women, kidnap the children, and steal the cattle. More than 30,000 people have been slain, and 1 million have fled their homes. Most of the refugees are starving, and some are dying in the mine-strewn border region of neighboring Chad. One U.N. official has called the carnage “the world’s greatest humanitarian and human-rights catastrophe.”

What are the roots of the conflict?

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Race and religion. Sudan, the largest country in Africa by land mass, has two distinct populations. Northern Sudan, including Khartoum, is controlled by an Arab Muslim minority that holds most of the wealth and political power. In the south is an oppressed black African majority, made up predominantly of Christians and animists. The Arabs began arriving in Sudan in the seventh century to trade—but also to raid. By the 19th century, they were regularly pillaging the south for “black gold” (slaves), “white gold” (ivory), and “yellow gold” (the real thing). For centuries, black Africans in the south have dreamed of independence from the Arab minority. Although Darfur’s black population is largely Islamic, they share this goal.

How long has Sudan been independent?

Since 1956. Up to then, it was jointly ruled by the Egyptians and the British, who administered northern and southern Sudan as separate colonial entities. Northern Sudan was oriented toward the Arab world; the south, toward Africa. Independence and unification immediately sparked a round of civil wars, with a southern military unit mutinying against the rulers in Khartoum. In the ensuing fighting, which lasted into the 1960s, 500,000 people died. In 1972, after a series of coups and massacres, both sides signed a truce that gave the southerners a measure of independence.

How long did the truce last?

Until 1983, when 500 southern troops stationed in the town of Bor refused to be rotated to the north. Col. John Garang, who had received military training in the U.S. and earned a Ph.D. from Iowa State University, was ordered to quell the mutiny. Instead, he declared himself the head of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement and Army and encouraged other revolts against Khartoum. The renewed north-south fighting got worse when President Ja’far Numayri dissolved the regional government and declared Islamic sharia law throughout the land.

Did anyone try to stop the fighting?

The two sides almost made peace in 1989. But on the very day that sharia was to be rescinded, el-Bashir overthrew Numayri’s government. He banned political parties and made sharia harsher than ever, instituting public floggings and amputations. He also welcomed Osama bin Laden and strengthened ties to terrorist states like Iraq and Libya. The U.S. responded by supporting Garang’s southern rebels with about $20 million in aid.

What are the chances for peace now?

In the south, they’re actually quite good. After years of senseless slaughter, el-Bashir has failed to gain control of the area. But he’s eager to exploit that region’s recently discovered oil reserves. So in July 2002, Khartoum and Garang signed a framework accord called the Machakos Protocol. It stipulates that sharia will continue in the north, while the south will get autonomy for six years, culminating in a referendum on independence. Late last year, both sides also agreed to split Sudan’s future oil revenue. Final details, like the status of several central states, are now being worked out. But the U.S., which has taken a lead role in the negotiations, fears it could all break down because of the fighting in Darfur.

How are the two conflicts connected?

The U.S. is worried that if it objects strenuously to the genocide in Darfur, el-Bashir’s government will break off the peace process. Last month, President Bush declined to impose harsh economic sanctions against Khartoum. Instead, he certified that the government was negotiating in good faith to end the north-south war. Critics charge that el-Bashir is holding out the prospect of peace in the south only because it gives him leeway to continue his genocide. “Khartoum has a vested interest in the status quo—no war and no peace,” said John Prendergast, a former National Security Council staffer. “With no fighting in the south, it can concentrate its military hardware and assets on Darfur.”

What will happen in Darfur?

We’ll know soon. Last month, Khartoum agreed to a cease-fire that would allow residents to reach their fields to plant crops and would permit food deliveries to the stricken area. But critics say the government has been stalling because it is trying to hide evidence of atrocities. Now it’s a race against time. Any relief must reach Darfur before the rainy season begins, in early June. After that, the roads will be impassable, and mass starvation will become likely.

Sudan the pariah