At a Fourth of July barbecue last weekend, my buddy Tom was mocking the absurdity of Hillary Clinton's attacks on the wealthy elitists she usually calls donors and friends, when my other buddy, Aron — Tom's usual foil — said Clinton's hypocrisy didn't really matter. The next presidential election, he said, "is all about the Supreme Court," so he'd vote for any Democrat. I suspect many liberals and conservatives will cast their ballots in 2016 on that same, single-minded basis — and sad to say, it's an entirely sound rationale. The court has become the most powerful branch of government, making decisions that polarized voters and a gridlocked Congress and president cannot. It's the court that decides whether gay couples can marry, how campaigns are financed, whether to pull the plug on ObamaCare or the death penalty, and even who wins contested presidential elections. Since justices serve for life, filling a court vacancy is now the president's most consequential domestic decision. The next president may replace up to four justices — and utterly reshape the court.
On Inauguration Day in 2017, Justices Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Antonin Scalia, and Anthony Kennedy will be in their 80s. Stephen Breyer will be 78. If a Democrat appoints replacements for all of them, the court would swing to a 6-3 liberal majority. If a Republican fills all four seats, conservatives would have a 7-2 advantage. Even if there are just two replacements, the court — and the country — will very likely take a sharp left or right turn and stay on that path for decades. No wonder there are growing murmurs about changing the lifetime tenure of justices to 18-year terms. Only czars and popes should expect to rule for life.
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