Bernie Sanders' long, lonely march to the Democratic convention

As we approach the end of the 2016 primaries, Bernie Sanders has been insistent that nothing is over and he still might pull this thing out. "The Democratic National Convention will be a contested convention," he tells his still-joyous crowds, and he'd be the one doing the contesting. Despite the fact that Hillary Clinton has (and will still have) a majority of the votes cast, a majority of the pledged delegates, and a majority of the superdelegates, Sanders claims that he will be able to convince enough of the superdelegates now backing Clinton to switch to him so that he can snatch the nomination from her. Some believe that if he wins California (which will be close either way) he'll have some mysterious new form of "momentum" that will work its magic on those superdelegates' minds.

Or so he says today. But I have some bad news for those eagerly anticipating a triumphant Bernie Sanders marching the 400 or so miles from Burlington, Vermont, to Philadelphia on a path of glory: Sad as it may be to realize, this dream too will fizzle with the cruel passage of time. And if you're looking to keep fighting through the convention, your leader may not be with you.

Let's take a look at the calendar. California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and North and South Dakota vote this Tuesday. In all likelihood, just from the votes of New Jersey (where she has enjoyed a huge lead in the polls), Clinton will have amassed enough pledged delegates to gain an insurmountable lead, even if Sanders wins the other five states, which he probably won't. At that point, the media will declare her the presumptive nominee, either — depending on your perspective — because it's true, or because there's a nefarious conspiracy to silence Sanders' message of change.

Subscribe to The Week

Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

SUBSCRIBE & SAVE

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters

From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.

From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.

Sign up

Sanders knows this, which is why he's been trying to discourage journalists from saying that, or at least discourage people from believing them when they do. "I have reports that the media, after the New Jersey results come in, are going to declare that it is all over," he says. "That simply is not accurate."

But declare it they will. Then a week later on June 14, D.C. holds the final primary of the election. And then there are six more weeks until the Democratic convention starts on July 25.

Six weeks is an awfully long time. And how will Bernie Sanders keep his campaign alive during that time? Maybe he'll call superdelegates one by one to try to convince them that they ought to switch their votes to him. And what will they say? "You know, Bernie, you've got a point. Clinton beat you in votes and delegates, but as you say so often, you did win 20 states. That may be fewer states than Clinton won, but it's still a lot! So you've got my vote."

No, they won't say that. They'll congratulate him on his excellent performance in the primaries, and tell him that they're sticking with Clinton. If there's a single superdelegate who switches from Clinton to Sanders after next Tuesday — let alone the hundreds he'd need to prevail — I'd be amazed.

So what else might he do during that six weeks? Is he going to hold rallies to demonstrate his strength and appeal? Perhaps. But he might not get such great turnout when there are no more upcoming primaries, just a campaign everyone says is over.

It's also important to understand that the news media will lose interest in Sanders very quickly. Their attention will have completely turned to the upcoming battle between Clinton and Donald Trump. Just as right now they aren't eagerly calling up Ted Cruz every day to see what he's up to, so they will begin ignoring Sanders.

That's unless he promises something really dramatic, like angry protests inside and outside the convention hall. Which he could, but that would produce near-universal condemnation among Democrats, not just from establishment stooges but from most progressive politicians and commentators as well. He'd be branded a sore loser, someone who has lost his connection to reality, a joke. Any hope of exerting influence over Clinton's administration would be gone; that's not something she's going to forget.

I suspect that Sanders himself understands this pretty well, and I continue to believe that the increasingly ridiculous arguments he makes for why he and not Clinton should be the nominee are offered to buck up the spirits of his supporters and not because he actually believes them.

So what will those supporters do once the voting is over? Most of them will wipe away a tear and tell themselves that as sad as they are and as many reservations as they have about Hillary Clinton, at least she's no Donald Trump. Once Sanders joins her for a unity rally (which, I'll predict right now, is something that will happen during those six weeks), they'll be reassured that they can support Clinton without guilt.

And there may be a few of them who decide that by giving up after being beaten, Bernie Sanders has betrayed the ideals on which the Bernie Sanders campaign was built. Some may even show up in Philly, ready to make noise. But without Sanders leading their charge, they're going to have a lot more trouble getting people to listen.