Boris Johnson’s premiership saw the highest levels of migration in British history
Why am I hearing about this now?
The word “Boriswave” first started being used last year, on the far-right fringes of X, as a pejorative term for the surge of legal immigrants – principally from India, Nigeria, China, Pakistan and Zimbabwe – who arrived in the UK between 2021 and 2023, under Boris Johnson’s post-Brexit “Australian-style points system”. From there, the idea filtered into the right-wing media – and it was enthusiastically adopted by Reform UK. On 22 September, Nigel Farage spoke of a need to “wake everybody up to the Boriswave”, as he unveiled Reform’s policy of abolishing “indefinite leave to remain” for legal immigrants, and retroactively stripping it from those who had been granted it already.
How did the Boriswave come about?
Johnson’s Brexit deal, as promised, ended freedom of movement between the UK and the EU on 31 December 2020. He had also promised to lower net migration, which generally hovered between 200,000 and 300,000 people a year in the 2010s. Instead, the new system, from January 2021, vastly increased non-EU immigration. The minimum salary threshold was lowered from £30,000 to £25,600. The number of visas offered to lower-skilled workers, mostly in food preparation and hospitality, nearly doubled between 2022 and 2023. Students and care-home workers were given visas that allowed them to bring dependants.
What sort of numbers came to Britain?
Estimates from the Office for National Statistics, based on passenger surveys, suggest net migration – the number of people immigrating minus those emigrating – rose sharply from about 240,000 in 2021 to 764,000 in 2022 and 860,000 in 2023, before falling to 431,000 last year. The figures for gross immigration are even more dramatic, exceeding one million in 2022 and 2023. These are the largest annual immigration totals in British history. Around the same time, public attitudes to migration hardened.
Why did the government grant all these visas?
There is always pressure on ministers to grant visas. But, by late 2020, the pressure was very high. EU net migration had turned negative; roles that EU migrants had previously taken needed to be filled – in health, social care, farming and construction. Care-home staff were in worryingly short supply. Covid measures meant the economy had shrunk but inflation was rising fast. “Every business and every department of state was saying we need more pairs of hands to get things done,” Johnson has said. “Boris knew the numbers would be high,” one Cabinet member told The Telegraph, “although he probably didn’t think they’d be that high.” Some argue that the Home Office lost control of the process, failing to anticipate the numbers or the effects on housing, public services and wages. Less controversial was the decision to admit some 452,000 refugees (gross) from Ukraine and Hong Kong.
Why is all this an issue now?
Under long-standing rules, legal migrants who have lived in the UK for five years can apply for “indefinite leave to remain”. Depending on the type of visa, and on tests for financial stability and proficiency in English, this gives them permanent UK residency, access to the NHS and various benefits, and an option to apply for full citizenship. Because it’s almost five years since Johnson’s system was put in place, large numbers of people are about to become eligible for ILR. There’s no official modelling of the likely effects, but the Centre for Policy Studies, a conservative think tank, has estimated that 801,000 people could seek ILR during this Parliament, at a long-term net cost to the taxpayer of £234 billion.
Why so expensive?
Economists generally see immigration as a net benefit because working-age migrants pay taxes, without the government having had to pay for their education and childhood benefits. But the cohort of Boriswave people admitted, now seeking ILR, is relatively heavy on lower-skilled workers and dependants, and so more likely to be a net drain on public finances. Students alone brought 143,595 dependants into the UK in 2023. However, the Centre for Policy Studies’ £234 billion figure has been strongly contested. Jonathan Portes, a pro-immigration economist at King’s College London, claims the CPS has misunderstood the data, which could actually show a net taxpayer benefit of £125 billion. The CPS has since conceded that “overall-cost estimates should no longer be used” (although Reform is still using them).
What level is net migration at now?
Subsequent Tory and Labour governments restricted the influx. Basic salary thresholds have been raised to £33,400. Visa costs have increased. Neither care workers nor students are allowed to bring dependants. In addition, migration from Ukraine and Hong Kong is largely over. It is estimated that net migration for 2025 will be in the region of 350,000. This week, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood announced further restrictions: the ILR period will be extended from five to 10 years; legal migrants will have to learn English to a high standard, have a clean criminal record and volunteer in their community.
How are the politics playing out?
There is now a broad political consensus that immigration was allowed to run too high. Keir Starmer has denounced Johnson’s “experiment in open borders”. The Conservative leader, Kemi Badenoch, has said her party got it “wrong” on immigration, leading to a strain on public services and making integration harder; she favours a cap. Meanwhile, Reform is using the issue – and the word “Boriswave” – to peel off Tory voters, apparently with considerable success. Of the four main national parties, only the Lib Dems are not committed to bringing down numbers.
What we really think about migration
YouGov’s tracker polls suggest that, early in this decade, about 55%-60% of British adults thought immigration levels were “too high” but, from mid-2022, this figure shot up and it now exceeds 70%. Only 15% think levels are “about right”. The issue is also looming ever-larger in people’s minds. YouGov’s figures suggest that a majority of Britons now believe that immigration and asylum are the most important issues facing the nation (previously, health or the economy took this position) and 45% say they would support ending all migration – as well as making “large amounts” of recent migrants leave the UK.
At the same time, British attitudes to immigrants themselves are more liberal than they’ve ever been; in Europe, Britain is second only to Norway. In recent YouGov polls, majorities said they’d accept increased legal immigration if it kept the NHS fully staffed (67%) and improved the economy (52%). Surveys also suggest some confusion on the issue: 47% of Britons think illegal immigrants outnumber legal ones (in 2024, there were 43,630 illegal and 948,000 legal arrivals). This figure rises to 72% among those who support deportation. It may be that anti-migrant sentiment is linked to small boat arrivals, which surged in 2022.
