Opportunity and ideology are likely to have led the Afghan offshoot of the Islamic State group (IS) to select Moscow as the target for Friday's deadly terror attack, experts say. Despite an immediate claim of responsibility from IS, Vladimir Putin has sought to deflect blame to Ukraine for the attack at the Crocus City Hall music venue that left at least 137 people dead and hundreds more injured.
"From the outset,” it was "obvious to seasoned observers" who was behind the massacre, said Gavin Mortimer in The Spectator. The attackers "cleaved to the same ideology as those who have this century murdered thousands of innocent men, women and children in New York, Bali, Madrid, London, Brussels, Paris, Manchester and Nice."
What did the commentators say? Islamic State Khorasan Province (IS-K) is the branch of IS that has "most consistently and energetically" attempted terrorist attacks across Europe, including in Russia, said Greg Barton, the chair of global Islamic politics at Deakin University in Melbourne, at The Conversation. Russia is of "particular interest" to the Islamists, who claim Vladimir Putin and his regime are "killing Muslims," said Sky News.
IS and IS-K have a long list of grievances that include the former Soviet Union's occupation of Afghanistan in the 1980s, a crackdown on Muslim minorities in the North Caucasus, Russia's wars in Chechnya, and Moscow's role in propping up Bashar al-Assad's regime during Syria's decade-long civil war.
It was also "likely opportunity and personnel that led the group to select a soft target in Moscow," said Barton. In the past two years, the majority of IS-K militants arrested across Europe, including in Russia, have been Russian nationals or people from Central Asia with links to Russia.
What next? Like all terror groups, IS-K's "grand design is to push people to extremes and to try to elicit an overreaction and overreach," said Sky News. In the short term, the attack will raise the profile of the group outside central Asia and broaden its recruitment pool. Putin may continue to maintain that Ukraine was involved in Friday's attack or pivot to accept IS-K's responsibility. Either way, said Barton, the Kremlin is "likely to respond with a wave of violence, cracking down on Russia's Muslim minority communities." The Moscow massacre was "nightmarish," but "sadly the horror is likely to be just the beginning." |