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  • The Week Evening Review
    A recession outlook, climate change’s national security risks, and Ellison’s empire

     
    TODAY'S BIG QUESTION

    Is the US in recession?

    It often seems that economists are perpetually warning about the next recession. One influential analyst says an economic slowdown is already a fact of life for many Americans.

    Twenty-two states are “now experiencing persistent economic weakness and job losses that are likely to continue," said Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, to MarketWatch. The overall American economy is “on the precipice.” 

    Government data released before the shutdown showed the “broader economy was in pretty good shape,” said MarketWatch. However, while the gross domestic product might be rising, the “job market is weaker,” said Zandi.

    What did the commentators say?
    Other observers are warning of a bifurcated “K-shaped economy,” said CNBC. Wealthy Americans are “engaging their purchasing power,” but lower- and middle-class consumers are struggling with “rising costs on daily essentials like groceries and gas.” Meanwhile, “unofficial signals” like rises in missed car payments and women leaving the workforce are offering “early warning signs about what is to come,” said Quartz.

    “This moment feels much like late 2007 and early 2008,” said Ball State University Economics Professor Michael J. Hicks at The Indianapolis Star. For a time back then, the economy felt stable “even as we entered recession.” Today is similar. While the gross domestic product is still rising, driven by the AI boom, “nearly every other measure of economic activity has stagnated or is in deep decline.” 

    The U.S. economy is in a “weird place right now,” said economist Paul Krugman in his newsletter. Policymakers are “flying blind” because of the government shutdown, and unemployment is “relatively low by historical standards.” But Americans “feel very bad about the economy,” with consumer sentiment surveys rivaling the lows of the Great Recession. 

    One problem is that President Donald Trump’s “wildly erratic policies” are creating “huge uncertainty” for businesses and consumers, said Krugman. We may not be in a recession yet, but the “frozen state of the U.S. economy has already made life much worse for many workers.”

    What next?
    Americans are not happy with all of this. A new poll from the Public Religion Research Institute shows that most voters, including nearly 30% of Republicans, gave the president “low marks on the economy,” said Axios. That dissatisfaction could “test the durability of Trump’s support.”

     
     
    QUOTE OF THE DAY

    ‘I don’t think we are necessarily going to ask for a declaration of war. I think we are just gonna kill people that are bringing drugs.’

    Trump to the press about his plan to continue attacking alleged drug boats in Latin America. “They are going to be, like, dead,” he added, as tensions increase between the U.S. and South American nations, notably Colombia and Venezuela. 

     
     
    THE EXPLAINER

    How climate change poses a national security threat

    Climate change doesn’t just pose an existential threat to our planet. It’s also ratcheting up national security risks. With increasing food insecurity, resource scarcity and unstable borders, climate change could lead to a rise in political tensions both within the U.S. and between other countries.

    What exactly is at risk?
    An unpredictable climate “leads to heightened risks of interpersonal and intergroup violence,” said the World Economic Forum. A one-degree Celsius uptick in temperature can “increase interpersonal violence by approximately 2%, while intergroup conflict risk” can increase by “2.5% to 5%.” This is largely attributed to resource loss. With a two-degree change, some crops will “no longer survive, water shortages will become widespread, and food will be in short supply,” said Kevin Trenberth, a climate scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, at Newsroom. 

    As a result, there will be climate refugees deepening “regional conflicts that could explode to encompass many countries,” said Trenberth. Climate change “takes things that we were already worried about, like extremism or terrorism, and exacerbates the scale or nature of those threats,” Scott Moore, a practice professor of political science at the University of Pennsylvania, said to Time. “If you have these intensified climate change impacts, they place stress on things like food systems and worsen already existing tensions within countries.”

    What’s the government doing about it?
    The threat of climate change on national security was first acknowledged by President George W. Bush in 1991 and first listed as a threat by the U.S. national security community in 2008. However, in the U.S. intelligence community’s 2025 Annual Threat Assessment, any mention of climate change was noticeably absent.

    The Trump administration has been known to deny climate change and curtail programs dedicated to the environment or aid. It has “defunded climate science, shut down USAID, cut billions from foreign aid,” and “withdrawn America from the Paris Climate Agreement,” said William S. Becker at The Hill. 

    Failing to acknowledge the threat will make the administration's national security sector “less nimble,” said Mark Nevitt, an associate professor of law at Emory University, to Time. “You can’t just wish climate change away.”

     
     

    Statistic of the day

    $60: The price of a modification reportedly sold by a “hobbyist” on eBay that disables the recording light on Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses, according to 404 Media. The light serves as privacy protection by letting other people know when the glasses are recording.

     
     
    IN THE SPOTLIGHT

    Larry Ellison’s burgeoning media empire

    Larry Ellison has been a Silicon Valley titan for nearly half a century. Now 81, he is redefining himself, with the help of his son, David, as a 21st-century version of the 20th-century press baron, at the head of an empire straddling tech, media and politics. 

    ‘Back to the top of the tech heap’ 
    Ellison co-founded Software Development Laboratories in 1977 with an initial investment of just $2,000. The software and database company, which would later become Oracle Corporation, is now valued at more than $800 billion, and Ellison still owns 40%. He stepped down as CEO in 2014, but far from calling it a day, he has since “clawed his way back to the top of the tech heap,” said the Financial Times. 

    The entrepreneur is “forging new personal alliances” as he attempts to position himself in the “vanguard of the AI revolution.” His net worth has doubled in the past year, largely due to the key role Oracle is playing in building artificial intelligence infrastructure and entering lucrative deals with the likes of OpenAI and governments around the world. And his big bet on AI saw him briefly become the world’s richest person in September. 

    ‘CEO of everything’ 
    Ellison’s extracurricular interests have “tended to skew toward yachting, tennis, anti-aging research and buying an island in Hawaii,” and a late-in-life transformation into media mogul is an “unlikely path,” said the BBC. Yet the father-and-son duo are pursuing deals that would “give them control over some of the biggest media companies on the planet.” 

    Skydance Media, David Ellison’s Hollywood production company behind hit films like “Top Gun: Maverick,” has secured an $8 billion deal to purchase Paramount and its subsidiaries. The company is also in talks to take over Warner Bros Discovery, and Oracle will be part of a consortium to take over a minority stake in TikTok’s U.S. operations, giving it a greater role in retraining the platform’s algorithm. 

    These deals would not have been possible without the explicit support of President Donald Trump. He has called Ellison a “sort of CEO of everything.” And, indeed, “taken together,” said The Telegraph, “these investments put Ellison at the heart of some of the world’s most powerful outlets in both traditional and new media.”

     
     

    Good day 🟰

    … for women in Iceland. The Nordic country is the most gender-equal nation in the world, according to the World Economic Forum's Global Gender Gap Report. Four other Nordic nations, including Finland, Norway and Sweden, are in the top 10 out of 148 countries. The U.S. is 42nd.

     
     

    Bad day 🎗️

    … for battling prostate cancer. Men with the BRCA1 gene mutation are up to three times as likely to get prostate cancer, according to a study by the U.K.’s Institute of Cancer Research. About one in 400 men carries the “Jolie gene,” named after the actor Angelina, who has the mutation and got a preventative mastectomy in 2013.

     
     
    Picture of the day

    Holding tight

    Four-month-old pileated gibbon E.T. clings to its mother, Nyami, as she climbs a rope at the Attica Zoological Park near Athens, Greece. E.T. is one of four recently born animals at the park.
    Thanassis Stavrakis / AP

     
     
    Puzzles

    Daily crossword

    Test your general knowledge with The Week's daily crossword, part of our puzzles section, which also includes sudoku and codewords

    Play here

     
     
    The Week recommends

    The best TV series about the mob

    Several movies about mobsters, including “The Godfather” and “On the Waterfront,” are considered among the finest pieces of cinema ever produced. But organized crime has made its mark on television, too, helping to turn the medium into the preferred outlet for both auteurs and stars.

    ‘Love/Hate’ (2010-14)
    RTÉ’s mob drama, largely unknown outside of Ireland, is a gritty look at the Dublin criminal underworld. The show is distinguished by its unflinching portrayal of violence and its willingness to remove plot armor from key characters, often leaving viewers in an unsettling position. Featuring “compact seasons and episodes that don’t leave room for fluff,” the little-known series thrives on a “mix of drama and willingness to keep the stakes perilously high,” said Collider. (Prime)

    ‘Peaky Blinders’ (2013-22)
    Set in England immediately after World War I, the series tells the story of the titular street gang led by Tommy Shelby, played by Cillian Murphy (pictured above). Being a fan of this “big, dumb and brilliant show” ultimately gives you a sense of “roaring satisfaction” if you stay with it, said The Ringer. (Netflix)

    ‘The Penguin’ (2024)
    A completely unrecognizable Colin Farrell plays Oz Cobb, nicknamed The Penguin, as he tries to sweet-talk, kill and scheme his way to the top of Gotham’s Falcone crime family. The performances by Farrell and Emmy winner Cristin Milioti, a would-be rival or ally, are part of what make the series a “genuinely excellent stand-alone miniseries,” said SFGate. (HBO Max)

    Read more

     
     
    WORD OF THE DAY

    Bibi-sitting

    A term coined by Israeli and U.S. media for the Trump administration’s efforts to watch over Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu amid the ceasefire deal. The phrase is already well known in Israel thanks to a previous series of campaign ads featuring Netanyahu as a babysitter.

     
     

    Poll watch

    Over two-thirds of Americans (69%) say it’s “extremely” or “somewhat” important for businesses to promote DEI — a new low since tracking began in 2022, according to a Bentley University / Gallup survey. Of the 3,007 adults polled, 35% think businesses are doing a good job of this.

     
     
    INSTANT OPINION

    Today's best commentary

    ‘Gutting special ed shows how little America thinks of its children’
    K. Ward Cummings and Anne Tapp Jaksa at Newsweek
    You “can tell a lot about a society by how it treats its most vulnerable members, like its children,” say K. Ward Cummings and Anne Tapp Jaksa. Indifference “seems to inspire Trump’s recent decision to gut the staff of the U.S. Office of Special Education and Rehabilitative Services.” Without “support, millions of children would be unable to access the academic opportunities that all American children are entitled to as citizens of this country.”

    ‘Why millions are failing college math and how to fix it’
    Victoria Ballerini, Ann Edwards and Katherine L. Arrington at The Hill
    College students are “walking into math classrooms worried about their future, perhaps with good reason,” say Victoria Ballerini, Ann Edwards and Katherine L. Arrington. Math has “functioned less as a bridge to opportunity than as a barrier to completion.” The “challenge is made all the more frustrating because they are unconvinced of math’s relevance.” For many students, it’s “taught in ways that appear abstract and disconnected from real-world applications and divorced from their aspirations.”

    ‘Dogs bred for herding sheep shouldn’t be stuck in the city. I would know — years ago, I tearfully gave one up.’
    Rebecca Shaw at The Guardian
    Dogs bred for “moving livestock across vast properties are now fetching a ball a few times while their owner plays Candy Crush,” says Rebecca Shaw. The reason you “want one of these dogs is because they are beautiful, amazing, intelligent creatures.” If you are “going to get one, you have to put in a lot of work to make sure they remain happy.” If you can “do that in your apartment or small backyard, that’s great and impressive.”

     
     

    Evening Review was written and edited by Nadia Croes, David Faris, Scott Hocker, Justin Klawans, Joel Mathis, Summer Meza, Devika Rao and Anahi Valenzuela, with illustrations by Stephen Kelly and Julia Wytrazek.

    Image credits, from top: Illustration by Stephen Kelly / Shutterstock; Anton Petrus / Getty Images; Andrew Harnik / Getty Images; BBC / Tiger Aspect Productions / Caryn Mandabach Productions / Alamy
     

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