“It was the war, stupid,” said Sohrab Ahmari in UnHerd. After Democrats last week won both the House and Senate and turned Texas, North Carolina, Ohio, and other red bastions blue, Republican lawmakers and party insiders have been trying to figure out why the midterms went so wrong. There is a simple explanation: “President Trump and the GOP broke their pledge of peace, launched an ill-conceived war with Iran, and thus exacerbated an affordability crisis they’d been elected to solve.” Vice President JD Vance gets it. “The reason we lost is the war,” he wrote in an election postmortem. Exit polls back him up. About 90% identified “cost of living” as a key factor in their vote, and 60% called the Iran war a mistake. Iran hawks have tried to shift the blame to Trump’s tariffs, said Michael Brendan Dougherty in National Review. They note that after “Liberation Day” in April 2025, Trump’s economic approval rating started to decline by about 1.3 percentage points a month. But that rate of decline nearly doubled after war erupted in February, causing gas to spike from $2.98 a gallon on average to $4.15 on Election Day. And when GOP pollsters asked Republicans who were not planning to cast a ballot what would get them to vote, “their top two answers were ending the war and addressing inflation.”
Yes, the war helped sink Republicans, said Tanner Greer in The New York Times. But there’s another big problem Vance conveniently avoided: “plain, old-fashioned graft.” In multiple preelection polls, voters cited government corruption as their top concern. Trump was elected in 2024 as a swamp-draining populist, and voters expected him to act like one. Instead, Americans “got a parade of millionaires and billionaires cashing in at their expense”—including Trump, who has added nearly $3 billion to his wealth. This was powerful campaign material for Democrats, and it powered Sen. Jon Ossoff’s 18-point victory in Georgia. In rally after rally, he railed against the “Mar-a-Lago mafia” and the “crook president and his crook family.” It was “a winning message.”
Democrats got a lot of other things right, said River Page in The Free Press. They ran everywhere, spending money and rallying support in deep-red states and districts the party hadn’t seriously contested in years. And their candidates wisely zeroed in on local issues and shunned the culture war. Adam Hamilton, the first Democrat to win a Senate race in Kansas since 1932, promised “to fight the tariffs that have hurt farmers and secure funding for rural hospitals.” In Texas, Sen.-elect James Talarico stuck with issues like the “unpopular data centers popping up across rural communities,” and shrugged off GOP attempts “to turn the race into a referendum on transgender issues.” Then there’s the fact that the Democrats who scored the biggest upset wins “all seem...nice?” said Nick Catoggio in The Dispatch. Hamilton, a love-thy-neighbor Methodist pastor; Annie Andrews, a South Carolina pediatrician headed for the Senate; and Iowa Sen.-elect Josh Turek, a former Paralympian, all come across as pleasant and unmalicious. Meanwhile, Republicans like Ohio gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy—who turned the childhood sexual abuse suffered by his rival into a campaign ad—fell flat. “Maybe, after 10 years of electing jerks, Americans have tired of it.”
Latino voters were crucial to Democrats’ big wins, said León Krauze in The Washington Post. In 2024, those same voters helped return Trump to the White House, and commentators heralded the emergence of a new, multiracial Republican coalition. But two years later, Latinos supported Democrats 70% to 29% in House races, according to a New York Times survey—a 30-point swing left that helped Democrats win every House district on the U.S.-Mexico border. “Trump has only himself to blame.” To hold on to those voters, he just had to keep his economic promises and not mistake Latinos’ support for border security as “a license for indiscriminate cruelty.” He did neither.
It’s no surprise Trump messed this up, said Jonathan Chait in The Atlantic. While his supporters and opponents often talk about his supposed “aura of mastery,” Trump is actually “bad at politics.” He lost the popular vote in 2016, lost the House in the 2018 midterms, and lost to Joe Biden in 2020. Sure, 2024 was an “unambiguous victory,” but even that came against “a clumsy fill-in candidate for an unpopular administration.” Trump is an effective challenger who can channel “discontent with his opponents,” but that doesn’t translate into “effective governing.” Indeed, the only reason his first term wasn’t a total dumpster fire is because sensible advisers and senators kept him in check; this time around, there were no restraints. If you want to blame the GOP’s midterm disaster on anything, blame “Trump’s entire second term,” said Sean Trende in RealClearPolitics. Every decision he made—the war, the tariffs, the ICE raids, the vanity construction projects, the Qatari plane, the Epstein files—alienated some constituency. The GOP didn’t lose because of one single thing. “It was all the things.”